The wild ride continues for crude. Yesterday it slid another four percent. Today, while the slide is less dramatic, the result is the same. Lower oil prices.
“We broke $45 yesterday and people are looking for the bottom,” says iiTrader’s Bill Baruch. “Analyst after analyst is moving targets lower. OPEC oil ministers, they’re all fine seeing $40. So yeah, it brings the question ‘when is enough enough?’”
Related: Crude troubles continue: Stocks tracing an ominous pattern
Baruch notes a few signs that a bottom may be in sight... kinda sorta.
“We have the most oil rigs idled since 1991,” he says. “We’re seeing open interest from the long side. Speculators kind of fall off and even speculate to the short side. So when you start to see that, we could say that a bottom could be coming at some point but it may not be too soon… The bottom isn’t necessarily a point - it’s a process. We’ve been going through this level - $45 - it’s a psychological level obviously down to $40. And you've got to measure the risk/reward. What are you going to risk at $45 down to $40.”
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For those looking for an answer, Baruch has some useful advice in the associated video, assuming you are comfortable in the trading of options. For the average Joe investor looking to make money on oil fluctuations the advice boils down to this:
There are some big expirations coming in the world of crude futures. In short, it means those aforementioned savvy investors will be getting into the oil market in the next week or so. With that buying and selling comes volatility. “We could see a rip as high at $50 in the near term,” Baruch says. “But does that mean the bottom is going to be in? No. Again the bottom is going to be a process and we’re going to see a pain threshold a little bit more than where we are right now.”
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