The past five-year earnings decline for Reckitt Benckiser Group (LON:RKT) likely explains shareholders long-term losses
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While not a mind-blowing move, it is good to see that the Reckitt Benckiser Group plc (LON:RKT) share price has gained 13% in the last three months. But if you look at the last five years the returns have not been good. In fact, the share price is down 18%, which falls well short of the return you could get by buying an index fund.
On a more encouraging note the company has added UK£1.7b to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the five-year loss for shareholders.
Check out our latest analysis for Reckitt Benckiser Group
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During five years of share price growth, Reckitt Benckiser Group moved from a loss to profitability. Most would consider that to be a good thing, so it's counter-intuitive to see the share price declining. Other metrics might give us a better handle on how its value is changing over time.
Revenue is actually up 2.7% over the time period. A more detailed examination of the revenue and earnings may or may not explain why the share price languishes; there could be an opportunity.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Reckitt Benckiser Group will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Reckitt Benckiser Group, it has a TSR of -3.5% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 15% in the last year, Reckitt Benckiser Group shareholders lost 8.6% (even including dividends). Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 0.7% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should be aware of the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Reckitt Benckiser Group .