Pound, gold and oil prices in focus: commodity and currency check, 13 November
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Pound (GBPUSD=X)
The pound hovered near a three-month low against the dollar in early European trading on Wednesday, with GBP/USD edging around $1.2750 as markets awaited crucial US inflation data set to be released later in the day.
Investors are closely watching for any signals that the figures that could sway the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates, though few expect the data to alter the Fed’s December policy decision unless it diverges sharply from expectations.
Economists anticipate that headline US inflation will have picked up to 2.6% year-on-year for October, up from 2.4% in September. Core CPI, a key metric that strips out volatile food and energy prices, is projected to rise by 3.3% year-on-year, a steady increase that aligns with recent trends. On a monthly basis, analysts predict a 0.2% increase in headline inflation and a 0.3% rise in the core figure.
This expected inflation uptick is seen as unlikely to shake the Fed’s confidence in the current disinflationary trajectory, as evidenced by recent statements from Fed officials. With many policymakers expressing satisfaction with progress toward the Fed’s 2% target, the latest CPI data is not expected to prompt a significant shift in outlook unless it diverges notably from the forecast.
Read more: FTSE 100 LIVE: Stocks lacklustre as traders await US inflation data
The US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB), a benchmark tracking the dollar’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, remained strong at 106.08, holding onto recent gains and marking its highest level in over six months.
Against the euro (GBPEUR=X), sterling was slightly higher, up 0.1% to €1.2009. Germany's domestic political landscape, shaped by upcoming elections set for February, continues to weigh on the euro.
Political uncertainty is casting a shadow over Europe’s largest economy as it struggles to stabilise after a year marked by economic headwinds and weak growth. Additionally, concerns around potential US trade tariffs further complicate the outlook for the eurozone.
Gold (GC=F)
Gold prices ticked up on Wednesday, rebounding slightly after recent losses as a pause in the dollar’s rally provided a breather for the metal.
Spot gold climbed 0.1% to $2,611.08 per ounce, while US gold futures rose by the same margin to $2,607.80, maintaining a foothold above the $2,600 level after nearing a seven-week low on Tuesday.
The yellow metal has been under pressure in recent weeks, retreating sharply from record highs following a broad risk-on rally in global markets spurred by Donald Trump’s election victory. The outcome drove a surge in investor confidence, which weighed on traditional safe havens like gold, pushing spot prices to a near two-month low.
