Q3 2024 Dutch Bros Inc Earnings Call

In This Article:

Participants

Paddy Warren; Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Development; Dutch Bros Inc

Christine Barone; President, Chief Executive Officer, Director; Dutch Bros Inc

Josh Guenser; Chief Financial Officer; Dutch Bros Inc

Dennis Geiger; Analyst; UBS

Andrew Charles; Analyst; TD Cowen

Sara Senatore; Analyst; BofA Global Research

Gregory Francfort; Analyst; Guggenheim

Andy Barish; Analyst; Jefferies

David Tarantino; Analyst; Baird

Nick Setyan; Analyst; Wedbush Securities

Rahul Kro; Analyst; JPMorgan

Jeffrey Bernstein; Analyst; Barclays

Jeff Farmer; Analyst; Gordon Haskett

Presentation

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Dutch Bros' third-quarter 2024 conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce Paddy Warren, Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Please go ahead.

Paddy Warren

Good afternoon, and welcome. I'm joined by Christine Barone, CEO and President; and Josh Guenser, CFO. We issued our earnings press release for the quarter ended September 30, 2024, after the market closed today. The earnings press release, along with the supplemental information deck have been posted to our investor relations website at investors.pros.com.
Please be aware that all statements in our prepared remarks and in response to your questions, other than those of historical facts, are forward-looking statements and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that may cause actual results to differ materially. They are qualified by the cautionary statements in our earnings press release and the risk factors in our latest SEC filings, including our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly report on Form 10-Q.
We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. We will also reference non-GAAP financial measures on today's call. As a reminder, non-GAAP measures are neither substitute for nor superior to measures that are prepared under GAAP. Please review the reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to comparable GAAP results in our earnings press release.
I would also like to announce that we will be hosting our inaugural Investor Day in early 2025. We will plan to provide updates to our key growth drivers and intend to hold this event in person in the Phoenix, Arizona market. We expect to release further details in the coming months. With that, I would now like to turn the call over to Christine.

Christine Barone

Thank you, Paddy. Good afternoon, everyone. I want to start by sharing that we are incredibly excited about the strength of our brand, the love from our customers and our clear path forward. As the industry continues to evolve, we expect that our customers will place an even larger emphasis on iced beverages, on personalization, and on speed. We see the increasing relevance of energy, which has been a core component of our menu for over a decade.
We also see the continued importance of genuine connection, which are Broistas [and body] and has been a cornerstone of Dutch Bros since we started with a single push cart in Grants Pass, Oregon, in 1992. We believe we are uniquely positioned to execute with excellence in this environment. which we did in Q3 as we delivered on key strategic and operational initiatives.
We have substantial momentum across the Board at Dutch Bros. Our brand is resonating with customers. In Q3, we had comparatively the highest transaction quarter in two years. We accelerated our mobile order rollout, achieving 90% system and 96% company-operated shop coverage as of September 30. We have received great feedback from Broistas and customers, and we are beginning to see the impacts on our business.
Our real estate strategy is working. We are seeing strong new shop productivity as we have shifted our development focus and elevated our site selection process. We see increased white space opportunities as we grow. And we continue to demonstrate remarkable consistency in our shop opening cadence with 38 new shops in the quarter.
We are making investments in our development and construction teams and our 2025 shop pipeline is strong, positioning us to accelerate new shop growth. These efforts directly translated to our financial results.
In the quarter, we drove a 28% revenue increase, and a 20% adjusted EBITDA increase compared to the same quarter last year. System-wide same-shop sales rose 2.7% and company-operated same-shop sales grew 4%, both of which exceeded our expectations.
System-wide AUVs were $2 million, in line with the all-time record we posted earlier this year. Given the strength we saw in the quarter and our growing momentum, we will be raising our guidance. Josh will share more context in detail in a few minutes. But first, I'd like to walk you through an update on our business.
Our people are the cornerstone of our strength. Our exceptional culture, crews, and service resonate with customers of all ages and backgrounds. Our talented broistas and the service they provide drive our growth and set us apart from competitors.
Our people pipeline includes more than 400 operator candidates with an average tenure of more than seven years. Each person in the pipeline is ready to lead a market as an operator. When these new operators receive their assignment, we invest heavily in their success by sending our exceptional and experienced opening team to work alongside them in the new market. We believe this enables us to scale our culture, seeding new markets with a powerful combination of expertise, energy. and teamwork.
We continue to be pleased with our shop level turnover indicators, which we believe are considerably more favorable than the industry and are in line with our expectations. Our best people are staying and growing with us.
Year-to-date, we have received over 400,000 applications to work at Dutch Bros for about 11,000 open field positions. We are honored to be an employer of choice and blown away by the excitement of applicants. Hiring into our office in Arizona have also been swift, and we are in the process of building out a permanent location, which we expect to open in the first half of 2025.
Last year, we outlined the key elements of our strategy to continue to drive traffic, which were, an enhanced focus on innovation, increased paid advertising designed to build brand awareness, and more targeted rewards program efforts. We are executing on all elements of this plan and seeing momentum. Here is a brief update of each.
First, innovation. We believe innovation plays a foundational role in Dutch Bros' growth story. We use innovation to build sales layers and deepen our competitive moat through category-defining products. Our innovation strategy focuses on three core mini pillars, coffee, energy, and refreshment.
In Q3, we introduced a fresh take on fall drinks with the new cookie butter latte and caramel apple rebel, and the fan favorite caramel pumpkin brulee returned. Our innovation extends to how we surprise and delight with unique sticker drops and special merch giveaways.
Physical and digital sticker drops create excitement and strengthen brand loyalty by providing a unique opportunity to connect with our customers, many of whom collect these stickers. We will continue looking for ways to increase this connection, like when we released a custom Dutch Bros' rubber duck to celebrate National Coffee Day, which drove both excitement and sales volume.
Second, paid advertising, an upsized paid advertising investment is having a positive impact on our business. In late 2023, we began accelerating digital spending in new markets to drive brand awareness. We are encouraged by the results that we are seeing in the productivity of new shops and in the company-operated same-shop transaction growth.
These efforts are driving what we believe to be a material change in sales trajectory in new markets. Albeit from a very small base, we have also seen unaided brand awareness triple in Texas. While this is a good start, we have a long runway with unaided brand awareness, still just a fraction of our more mature markets.
In Q3, we began expanding our paid advertising efforts into additional markets, including mature markets. We are encouraged by what we are seeing here as well.
And third, Dutch Rewards. We continue to see great traction in our Dutch Rewards program. In Q3, approximately 67% of our transactions were from Dutch Rewards members. And in the quarter, we accelerated our segmentation efforts. We are more efficiently reaching our customers, and we'll continue to provide even more personalized and relevant offers going forward.
In the quarter, we set a record for the greatest number of Dutch Rewards registrations since the initial launch of the program with over 1 million customers signing up. We believe our rollout of mobile order is contributing to this growth.
As of September 30, 858 shops had mobile order functionality enabled, representing 90% system and 96% company-operated shop coverage. I want to acknowledge the hard work, both in our shops and in our IT, operations, and marketing teams that made this rollout possible. The completion of this rollout is ahead of our previously communicated time line.
I'd like to share some initial observations and learnings from the rollout. First, our customers are enthusiastic about mobile order. As of October 31, our customers have placed approximately 2.8 million mobile order transactions. Our customers love the functionality and service. We are achieving high customer satisfaction, with more than 9 out of 10 mobile order customers likely to use the channel again and recommended to their friends and family.
Second, our Broistas are embracing mobile order and delivering excellent service within this channel. As a people-centric business, getting this right is of utmost importance. We have positive feedback from our Broistas and almost 95% order accuracy. Furthermore, mobile order tip rates are higher than other channels.
Third, we are seeing order ahead over indexed in the morning daypart and with coffee-based beverages. This gives us confidence that we are on the right track with our strategy to further unlock the morning daypart with greater convenience.
Finally, we are beginning to see the impact of mobile order in our financial results. We observed that customers who utilize mobile order increased their frequency by about 5%. Right now, mobile order makes up about 7% of our channel mix system-wide, and we see runway to steadily grow penetration. In fact, in some of the markets with our US shops, we see mobile order penetration at more than twice the level of our overall system.
In these newer markets, we are also seeing same-shop transaction outperformance, which we believe is a combination of paid advertising spend, mobile order usage, and market planning efforts. In Q3, we began a limited food test in six shops. In this test, we explored a few potential menus, including an expanded bakery offering and sweet and savory hot food options.
Based on the early results, it is likely a more robust food venue will play a role for Dutch Bros in the future, and we will continue our testing in the coming quarters. With food making up less than 2% of our sales right now, we clearly see the opportunity. We will be very diligent and measured as we determine the timing and role of an expanded fee program and how we best support our Broistas so that we can execute with speed, quality, and service.
Shifting gears to development. We opened 38 shops in Q3, bringing our total shop count to 950. For the year, we have opened 119 new shops, of which 103 are company operated. We are executing our real estate strategy and are very energized by the results. We believe the combination of enhanced market planning and our elevated paid ad spending in new markets is driving improved new shop productivity, which we saw once again in Q3.
Our confidence in our new shop growth prospects is high. Over the past several months, we have made significant investments in our development and construction capabilities. We have invested in new tools, processes, and team members, including doubling the size of our site acquisition team.
We believe these investments position us to capitalize on an expanding opportunity set and strengthen our competitive moat in new shop development. Our development pipeline is deeper today than it was at the same time last year. We expect shop openings to accelerate in 2025 to at least 160 shops and further accelerate in 2026.
In closing, momentum in the business is strong. We believe our runway is long, and our path forward is clear. We have top-tier growth. We delivered 28% year-over-year revenue growth and 38 new shop openings. We expect to open at least 160 shops in 2025 and driven by our investments in our development team, we see an opportunity to further accelerate unit growth in 2026
We demonstrated our ability to deliver transaction growth, through a combination of our innovation, paid ad spending, Dutch Rewards, and our growing mobile order capabilities. We have excellent shop margins, delivering this top-tier growth profitably.
We are well capitalized. We believe we have plenty of flexibility upon which to execute our growth plans and capture a considerable white space. Most importantly, we have great people, anchored by outstanding Engage Broistas with a strong pipeline of operators ready to grow with us. With that, I'll turn it over to Josh.