When it comes to investing, there are some useful financial metrics that can warn us when a business is potentially in trouble. Businesses in decline often have two underlying trends, firstly, a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) and a declining base of capital employed. Basically the company is earning less on its investments and it is also reducing its total assets. So after we looked into Victrex (LON:VCT), the trends above didn't look too great.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Victrex:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.15 = UK￡88m ÷ (UK￡627m - UK￡46m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2023).

Thus, Victrex has an ROCE of 15%. In absolute terms, that's a pretty normal return, and it's somewhat close to the Chemicals industry average of 13%.

See our latest analysis for Victrex

In the above chart we have measured Victrex's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report for Victrex.

So How Is Victrex's ROCE Trending?

There is reason to be cautious about Victrex, given the returns are trending downwards. To be more specific, the ROCE was 25% five years ago, but since then it has dropped noticeably. On top of that, it's worth noting that the amount of capital employed within the business has remained relatively steady. Companies that exhibit these attributes tend to not be shrinking, but they can be mature and facing pressure on their margins from competition. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on Victrex becoming one if things continue as they have.

The Bottom Line

In the end, the trend of lower returns on the same amount of capital isn't typically an indication that we're looking at a growth stock. It should come as no surprise then that the stock has fallen 32% over the last five years, so it looks like investors are recognizing these changes. Unless there is a shift to a more positive trajectory in these metrics, we would look elsewhere.

One more thing, we've spotted 1 warning sign facing Victrex that you might find interesting.