Complete Solaria, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSLR) missed earnings with its latest second-quarter results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Statutory earnings fell substantially short of expectations, with revenues of US$4.5m missing forecasts by 59%. Losses exploded, with a per-share loss of US$0.26 some 117% below prior forecasts. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Complete Solaria

Taking into account the latest results, the twin analysts covering Complete Solaria provided consensus estimates of US$41.5m revenue in 2024, which would reflect a substantial 31% decline over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 84% to US$0.31. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$57.0m and US$0.47 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also reducing the estimated losses the business will incur.

The analysts have cut their price target 25% to US$4.50per share, suggesting that the declining revenue was a more crucial indicator than the forecast reduction in losses.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that Complete Solaria's decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 52% to the end of 2024. This tops off a historical decline of 25% a year over the past year. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 8.0% annually. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Complete Solaria is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Still, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Complete Solaria's future valuation.