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The vibe on Wall Street post-Donald Trump's reelection: Bring on the good times.
“This election was about whether you were more scared of four years of the same or more scared of four years of change,” Apollo Global (APO) co-founder and CEO Marc Rowan said at Yahoo Finance's Invest conference. (Disclosure: Yahoo Finance is owned by Apollo Global Management.)
Rowan, who is now being floated as a potential Treasury Secretary pick in the incoming Trump administration, added that the "market's verdict's been rendered.”
“I think this administration has a remarkable chance to really pivot the country to take advantage of all the inherent positives that we have,” Rowan said.
Rowan’s optimism matches that of the market, with the S&P 500 rallying above 6,000 in the best post-election day melt-up of all time. Experts say the rally is based in part on Trump's policy proposals around making tax cuts permanent and loosening regulations.
But that rally and optimism may be ignoring a tariffs-led headwind.
The top 100 firms in the S&P 500 by market cap get 8% of their revenue on average from China. If Trump’s proposed 60% tariff on Chinese imports comes to fruition, profit margins and stock prices could slip, though it’s more likely tariffs will double from current levels, according to Bloomberg Economics.
Read more: How do tariffs work, and who really pays them?
It's a concern Deutsche Bank chief US economist Matthew Luzzetti echoed on Yahoo Finance's Opening Bid podcast.
“Markets are telling you more or less Donald Trump means somewhat good for growth, somewhat inflationary,” Bridgewater Associates co-chief investment officer Karen Karniol-Tambour said at Invest, warning that immigration restrictions and a lift to the deficit are inflationary.
To understand when the deficit devil over the shoulder becomes a zombie in front of you, BlackRock’s Rick Rieder watches foreign demand at Treasury auctions. Despite these risks and elevated equity multiples, he’s still bullish.
"The technicals for equities are crazy, … crazy good," Rieder said at Invest. "I've learned over my career the technicals win. ... Even if you believe in the fundamentals, the technicals win more."
An easing cycle from the Federal Reserve that the market believes could bring the US to a soft landing also doesn’t hurt. Though Judy Shelton, a former economic adviser and Trump appointee to the Fed, didn’t want to throw the Fed a victory party anytime soon.
“We’ve gone through the worst inflation in 40 years, and when it comes to accountability … I don’t think that anyone got fired at the Fed,” Shelton said at the conference.