Last week, you might have seen that Waste Connections, Inc. (NYSE:WCN) released its third-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.7% to US$176 in the past week. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$2.3b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Waste Connections surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$1.19 per share, modestly greater than expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Waste Connections

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Waste Connections' 22 analysts is for revenues of US$9.57b in 2025. This reflects a solid 10% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 31% to US$4.78. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$9.54b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.85 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$194. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Waste Connections analyst has a price target of US$225 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$135. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Waste Connections' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 8.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. Compare this to the 159 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.6% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Waste Connections is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.