Bull market to digest gains heading into year 3, strategist explains

LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick joins Yahoo Finance Live to discuss the outlook for the 2022 stock market amid the ongoing bull market.

Video Transcript

BRIAN SOZZI: The bull market has officially turned two years old, points out our next guest. The question now is whether the bull market has room left to run even further. Ryan Detrick is the chief market strategist at LPL Financial. Ryan, great to get some time with you. So I guess you're here to tell me that this year, the bull market is about to end, right?

RYAN DETRICK: No, I'm not going to say that, Brian. Thanks. Good morning, guys. So you're right. I mean, yesterday was the two-year anniversary-- or maybe we'll call it birthday, I guess, you know, from those lows when the bull market was born. So that's a big-- I mean, we had a heck of a rally, right, almost up 100% over the past two years. We looked at 11 bull markets since World War II. Once they got to the third year, three of those 11 actually died. In other words, a 20% correction. The ones that didn't, though, gained-- I'm going to say only-- only 5.2% for the year.

So the key concept being years one and two of the bull market are really strong. We just saw that. Year three, we don't think the bull market is going to end. We think, you know, gains are likely still. But be a little more tempered, I guess we'll say, over the next 12 months. And sometimes bull markets digest those gains. Perfectly normal and perfectly healthy. Just, investors need to be aware of that.

JULIE HYMAN: Well, and Ryan, give people a little perspective here. When it's a bull market, what do investors need to know about a bull market and a pullback in a bull market versus a rally in a bear market? In other words, why is it important what kind of-- where we are in that cycle?

RYAN DETRICK: Yeah, great question there. I mean, you know, clearly, a bull market's going to last a lot longer than most people think, I think is the best way to put it. Let's remember, if we want to go back to this, from 2000 to 2013, right, literally S&P went nowhere for 13 years. That's called a secular bear market. We've been in, in our opinion, a secular bull market ever since. And just last week, you know, are we a bear market rally? Is it not?

Last week was amazing. The S&P had four straight days of 1% gains, as people might remember. When you go back in history, that's only happened four other times, so really small sample size, yes, but again, the returns a year later after, four straight 1% gains, higher 20% every time, 28% on average. So the key concept being, I think what happened last week, very welcome in the lows of the year.