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As the the presidential election cycle heads towards Super Tuesday, the current frontrunner for the Republican nomination is former President Donald Trump. While the economy has been through ups and downs during Biden's presidency, many on Wall Street wonder what would happen during another Trump presidency. Strategists from Citi have authored a report taking a dive into what that would look like.
Citi Global Head of Macro and Emerging Market Strategy, and one of the authors of the aforementioned report, Dirk Willer joins Yahoo Finance to give insight into his report and highlight key takeaways if Trump wins the 2024 presidential election.
Willer spoke on the tariffs that Trump touts he would implement if back in office: "I think the issues that people worry about with Trump on the negative side when it comes to markets and economic policies, indeed, most of the tariffs, and a little of the geopolitics, which could also play very much into market reactions. On the tariff side, as you know, President Trump has put out a 10% tariff against almost everyone and a 60% tariff against China and he mentioned maybe 60% might not be enough. Clearly very, very aggressive policy."
He continues on with: "But it will not be probably year like 2017 which had adjusted very strong market because the tariff wars took some time to manifest itself. This time around, we expect to see that a little bit faster. So still decent equity markets under Trump, but not as strong as during the last term."
For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance Live.
Editor's note: This article was written by Nicholas Jacobino
Video Transcript
- What struck me is there were some significant similarities between the two candidates on things like health care and on energy policy. It seems like on foreign policy, particularly with regard to China, even though posture wise, maybe not much would change, there is, of course, the threat of additional tariffs coming from a President Trump. What effect would that have?
DIRK WILLER: Yeah. No, you're right. I mean, I think the issues that people worry about with Trump on the negative side when it comes to markets and economic policies, indeed, most of the tariffs and a little bit the geopolitics which could also, of course, play very much into market reactions. On the tariff side, as you know, President Trump has put out a 10% tariff against almost everyone and a 60% tariff against China and even mentioned maybe 60% might not be enough.
So clearly a very, very aggressive policy. And while the Democrats are not exactly China friendly, for sure, I don't think you would see this type of headlines out of a Democratic government. So yes, the tariffs, if you remember, 2017 was a very strong year for the market because we were really riding on the tails of the aggressive tax cuts and the deregulation that the Trump term brought with it.