The Federal Reserve is set to announce its rate decision Wednesday afternoon, with markets anticipating three rate cuts. Macro Institute Chief Investment Strategist Brian Nick and F/m Investments President and CIO Alex Morris join Yahoo Finance Live to discuss their outlook on the Fed's decision.
Nick notes markets and the Fed are "aligned," meaning expectations of three rate cuts have already been priced into the market, resulting in "not that many fireworks" following tomorrow's announcement. The strategist suggests that markets are headed towards "the longest Fed fund rate plateau," so investors are looking for a potential "break in the economy."
Morris believes rates will be held steady, although he "wouldn't be surprised" if there were outlying factors that pushed the Fed to implement fewer rate cuts instead. However, he believes "the odds of that are low." He notes that the timing of rate cuts is uncertain; however, with the presidential election coming in November, he highlights that "the Fed is politically aware," seeking to avoid cuts or spikes appearing to "favor" any presidential candidate or party.
For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance Live.
Editor's note: This article was written by Angel Smith
Video Transcript
[AUDIO LOGO]
JOSH LIPTON: With just over 10 minutes left until the closing bell on Wall Street, we're looking at how to navigate the big picture with the Yahoo Finance playbook. Today we're taking a closer look at how the Fed could impact your portfolio and what's driving the broader market rally.
MADISON MILLS: Yes, we're highlighting expectations for the Fed's March meeting. And what that means for your investment decisions now and looking ahead?
Joining us now is F/m Investments President and Chief Investment Officer Alex Morris, and Macro institute Chief Investment Strategist Brian Nick. Thank you both for joining us. And, Brian, I want to start with you.
Obviously, all eyes on the Federal Reserve. And their interest rate decision tomorrow. But I do think the biggest focus is going to be on that dot plot. So what are your expectations for that?
BRIAN NICK: So this might be a weird Fed meeting and that the markets and the Fed are relatively aligned coming into it, which is not usually been the case. The market's been looking for the Fed to make pivots here and there in the last couple of meetings. I think this one the market, and the Fed are both expecting kind of the same thing as the last time we've heard from them.
And the Fed speak since the January meeting. It doesn't indicate we're going to be getting a much different message on inflation or on the unemployment outlook. So my base case is that we're going to continue to see expectations baked in and the Fed dot plot for three rate cuts this year. That's about what the market's expecting to which means potentially not that many fireworks after the announcement tomorrow.
JOSH LIPTON: All right, Alex, I want to bring you in here as well. What's your take, Alex, tomorrow? What are you expecting the Fed to do and say tomorrow, Alex? So you expect the same thing. Not a lot of fireworks?
ALEX MORRIS: Yeah, I'm hoping for no fireworks. Because we're always kind of hoping for that. But I agree.
I think we're going to see rates still heady, held steady. We're going to see the dot plot look pretty much the same. I wouldn't be surprised, though, if there were some outliers who pushed us to two cuts or someone who might even be looking at one, which I think might spook the market a little bit. But I think the odds of that are low and any response would be relatively muted.
JOSH LIPTON: Alex, just a quick follow up on there does it matter to you, Alex, when exactly they start cutting?
ALEX MORRIS: I think it matters less to me than it does to them. And that there be a regular program. And that's because what's about to happen in November.
The Fed, although it is by design outside of the political system, it is still highly politically aware. And it wants to have a program. I'd argue where it doesn't look like rates are being cut or halted. Cuts are halted as a result of the election or who might be leading the election at that point.
So I think from them, they want to have a clear message, as Brian said, aligned with the markets and a consistent narrative. So when cuts come, it doesn't look like it's designed to favor any one politician party or policy.
MADISON MILLS: So, Brian, we just heard Alex bring up the election conversation. Obviously, it seems like there's still somewhat uncertainty when it comes to when we could get these cuts, how many we could expect. How are you advising your clients when it comes to positioning their portfolio amid this Fed uncertainty?
So this looks like it's going to be the second longest plateau for the Fed funds rate that we've ever seen. The longest one was 15 months between the last Fed rate hike in the first Fed rate cut, that actually came in 2006, 2007. I think dare say the Fed probably wishes it would have cut a little bit sooner at that point.
So because this is so unusually long, what we're looking for really is any signs of a break in the economy as the economy is sort of going to wilt under the pressure of higher interest rates. Now, we don't know exactly where the neutral rate is. That's one potentially source of surprise that we could see tomorrow in the dot plot of a few FOMC members raise their estimate of where neutral is. That's effectively changing policy without actually changing rates.
But I think the concern that we have is that we're going to start to see further weakness in the labor market data before we get down to 2% on inflation, which seems like it's sort of a bogey for a lot of these FOMC members. And that means the Fed's going to have to really choose between, do we have to wait for inflation to get all the way down to 2%? Or do we try to forestall what looks like a coming weakness in the labor markets and in the broader economy.