Argus has published its latest Portfolio Selector, which features its popular Focus List. Each month, Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, surveys the team of Argus Research industry analysts for their timeliest recommendations out of the company's fundamental universe of approximately 500 stocks. The Focus List typically includes 30 stocks: turnover is high, as Jim typically adds three or four new stocks per month. Below are the latest additions, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are United Therapeutics Corp (UTHR); Broadcom Inc (AVGO); Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW); Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) and the Focus List deletions are Walmart Inc (WMT); Itron Inc. (ITRI); Micron Technology Inc. (MU); Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG).

The back-to-school shopping season has just ended. In a blink, we'll be shopping for the holidays. That's should add up to a lot of shopping - but we'll see how secure consumers are feeling about their finances. Shopping patterns offer great insight into the state of consumers, who are the backbone of the U.S. economy (accounting for two-thirds of GDP). It's still a little early for some of the bigger industry groups to put out their holiday estimates, but we do have some data points to consider. Overall, the National Retail Federation expects retail sales to increase 2.5%-3.5% for the entire year. Stastista expects a 4% increase in holiday sales for 2024 compared to 2023. eMarketer forecasts a healthy 4.8% rise in holiday sales compared to last year. Salesforce predicts a 2% increase in 2024 holiday sales, which is still growing but at a slower pace than the 3% logged last year. In sum, consumer spending growth could be between 2%-5% this holiday period. Meanwhile, Forbes notes the following particulars about this upcoming holiday season: 1) it is shortened, with only 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas; 2) past presidential election years have shown a dip in spending leading up to and following the election; and 3) Walmart and Amazon account for roughly 38% of total retail growth, presenting a challenge for other retailers. The following is a list of BUY-rated stocks in Argus' Universe of Coverage. These represent companies that are leaders in the retail industry. Some of these stocks are also in various Argus portfolios.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the U.S. economy generated 142,000 new jobs in August, above our forecast of 130,000 but below the consensus of 160,000. July's result was revised lower to 89,000 from 114,000. June was revised down by 61,000 to 118,000. August's increase in payrolls and revisions lower to past results took the three-month average to 116,000, below the 12-month average of 202,000, which seems consistent with Fed Chairman Powell's recent description of a job market that is "solid" but slowing. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, matching consensus. While the jobless rate has risen from 3.8% last August, the four-week average of initial jobless claims is 230,000, well below the 300,000 that would trigger our concerns about a recession. Average hourly earnings increased 14 cents month to month and are 3.8% higher year over year (compared to 3.6% in July). The average workweek ticked up to 34.3 hours in August. Job gains occurred in healthcare, construction and social assistance. Employment showed little or no change in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; wholesale trade; retail trade; transportation and warehousing; information; financial activities; professional and business services; leisure and hospitality; other services; and government. Employment declined in manufacturing. After this report, stock futures were little changed from pre-release levels and the yield on the 10-year Treasury was little changed at 3.72%. Futures contracts suggested a 49% probability that the Fed will reduce the funds target by 25 basis points from the current 5.25%-5.50% and a 51% chance that it will cut the funds rate by 50 basis points when it meets on September 17 and 18, compared with probabilities of 57% and 43%, respectively, before the release. The probability that the funds target will be 4.25%-4.5% or lower after the December meeting was 94%, up from 85% before the release.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported this morning that the U.S. economy generated 114,000 new jobs in July, well below our forecast of 185,000 and the consensus of 175,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, which is enough to trigger the widely-followed Sahm Rule recession indicator. The indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month average unemployment rate rises by 50 basis points (bps) or more from its low point in the prior 12-months. Second-quarter GDP growth of 2.8% provides some reassurance that the economy is not currently in a recession and this week Jerome Powell called the Sahm indicator a "statistical regularity," not an economic rule. Still, the rise in the jobless rate along with the Fed's admission that policy is restrictive are risks to the economy that likely will force the Fed to become more accommodative. Average hourly earnings increased eight cents month to month and are 3.6% higher year over year (compared to 3.8% in June). The average workweek ticked down to 34.2 hours. Job gains occurred in healthcare, construction, and transportation and warehousing. Employment showed little or no change in government; mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; retail trade; financial activities; professional and business services; leisure and hospitality; and other services. Employment declined in information. After this report, stock futures declined from pre-release levels and the yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped to 3.85% from 3.98%. Before the release, futures contracts suggested a 100% probability that the Fed will reduce the funds target from the current 5.25%-5.50% when it meets in September. The market saw the chance of a 25-basis-point reduction at about 70% and a 50bps cut at 30%. After the release, the chance of a 25bps reduction dropped to 30% while the chance of a 50bps cut jumped to 70%.

According to the advance estimate released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Gross Domestic Product expanded in the second quarter at an annualized rate of 2.8%. That's well above the 2.0% consensus and 1.4% growth in the first quarter. Strong growth with easing inflation keeps the prospect of a September rate cut on the table. Spending by consumers and businesses drove growth. Personal consumption expenditures were up 2.3%, helped by a rebound in durable goods. The huge services category grew 2.2%. Consumer spending on goods rose 2.5%, reversing a 2.3% decline in 1Q. Within goods, durables jumped 4.7% after a 4.5% decline in 1Q. Nondurables were up 1.4%. Mortgage rates stuck near 7% strained housing affordability in 2Q, sending prospective buyers to the sidelines and residential fixed investment (housing) down 1.4%. This reversed a 16% jump in 1Q. Spending on equipment rose 11.6%, while intellectual property was up 4.5%. The report also contains data on inflation, which, consistent with recent reports, showed signs of moderating. The PCE Price Index increased 2.6% in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 3.4% in the first quarter. Excluding food and energy, the index increased 2.9%, compared with an increase of 3.7% in the previous quarter. In our view, the report this morning indicates that consumers and businesses remain resilient even after Fed's 11 rate hikes. After the report, futures on the S&P 500 rose. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose slightly as inflation eased amid strong growth. Based on futures trading, there was little change in the expectation that the Fed will maintain its 5.25%-5.5% policy target when it meets next week. Futures continued to show traders expectation for a rate cut in September, but the strong report raised the odds of a 25-basis-point cut and lowered the chance of 50-basis-point cut.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Dividend income is often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market. But dividends are an important element of return. Dividend income accounted for 42% of the total return of the S&P 500 between 1930 and 2012, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some of those decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for a smaller portion of returns, at around 15%-20%. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks. High-yield stocks typically have dividends that pay out in the 5%-8% range. Though the income appears attractive, the share prices of high-yield stocks may be at risk. Dividend-growth stocks typically have lower yields, often in the 1.0%-2.5% range. But the lower-yielding dividends are not likely to be a huge component of cash flow, leaving management teams with other value-additive options for deploying cash. Further, while the yields are not as high, management teams may be more likely to boost the payouts over time, as earnings grow.

Dividend income is often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market. But dividends are an important element of return. Dividend income accounted for 42% of the total return of the S&P 500 between 1930 and 2012, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some of those decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for a smaller portion of returns, at around 15%-20%. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks. High-yield stocks typically have dividends that pay out in the 5%-8% range. Though the income appears attractive, the share prices of high-yield stocks may be at risk. Dividend-growth stocks typically have lower yields, often in the 1.0%-2.5% range. But the lower-yielding dividends are not likely to be a huge component of cash flow, leaving management teams with other value-additive options for deploying cash. Further, while the yields are not as high, management teams may be more likely to boost the payouts over time, as earnings grow.

U.S. stocks were slightly lower after the open today, but have since moved mostly into the green, with only the Russell 2000 down as of this writing. Still, the action is not robust, with the range for the indices a tight -0.48% to +0.19%. To paraphrase William Shakespeare, it seems 'neither a buyer nor a seller be' is the quote of the day.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will update its forecast for GDP this morning. Last month, in its initial estimate, the BEA indicated that 1Q GDP grew at an annualized 1.6% pace. We expect that rate to hold -- though we note that from 1996 through 2022, the average revision from the advance estimate to the second estimate was plus or minus 0.5%. Key drivers behind the 1Q GDP increase included personal consumption expenditures, which grew at a respectable 2.5% annualized rate and contributed 1.68 percentage points to overall GDP expansion. Services remained strong, rising 4.0% and contributing 1.78 points to GDP growth. Consumption of goods declined 0.4% and acted as a drag for the first time since 4Q22, subtracting nine basis points (bps) from growth. Nondurable goods were flat. Durable goods were down 1.2% and cut nine basis points from output. If there is a consolation to the weak spending on goods it is that reports from the Commerce Department show that retail sales accelerated through the quarter, suggesting that the soft spending in 1Q may have been a hangover from a strong holiday rather than capitulation to recession. A surprising contributor to 1Q growth was residential fixed investment, which grew 13.9% and added 52 bps to GDP. Nonresidential investment grew 2.9%, with contributions from software and information processing equipment that probably fueled earnings in the tech sector. Inventory investments stripped 35 bps from GDP. Net exports subtracted 86 bps. The trade deficit doesn't worry us because it suggests that the U.S. economy is stronger than those of its trading partners, even with elevated interest rates. This may support the dollar and help contain inflation. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow report is calling for 2Q24 growth of 3.5% based on the May 24 update. The New York Fed Staff Nowcast is 2.0% for the second quarter. Our 2Q estimate is 1.9%.

Weekly Tee Up: PCE, the Fed's Fav

Innovation may be hard to define but, to borrow from former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, you know it when you see it. The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles, to a large degree - have moved overseas, where costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy is at its largest point in history and still growing. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, creating new products and services, and moving into new markets and applications, the domestic economy would be contracting, not expanding, and capital would not be flooding into the country. Particularly at this juncture of the market and economic cycles, when uncertainty is high due to high inflation and rising interest rates, we look to innovative companies to navigate the challenges. At Argus, a 90-year-old independent research firm that has innovated a time or two in its long history, we have focused on four types of innovative companies: Industry Disruptors; First to Market; New Product Specialists; and Product & Process Perfectors. Here are some examples of companies, featured in our Innovation Theme Model Portfolio.

The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles to a large degree - have moved overseas, where labor and materials costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy, even during the pandemic and the current period of high inflation, has expanded to record levels. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, creating new products (such as vaccines and AI) and services (such as Zoom calls) and moving into new markets, the domestic economy would not be growing, and capital would not be flooding into the country. The current high level of the U.S. dollar relative to currencies around the world attests to the confidence that global investors have in the durable and innovative U.S. economy.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the U.S. economy generated a whopping 303,000 new jobs in March, well above our forecast of 180,000 and the consensus of 200,000. February's result was revised lower to 270,000 from 275,000, but gains in February and January combined were revised higher by 22,000. March's increase in payrolls and the revisions to February and January took the three-month average to 276,000, which is above the 12-month average of 231,000 and continues to signal a very robust job market. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.8% from 3.9%, which remains below the threshold for triggering the widely followed Sahm Rule recession indicator. Average hourly earnings increased 12 cents month-to-month and are now 4.1% higher year-over-year (compared to 4.3% in February). The average workweek rose to 34.4 hours in March from 34.3 hours in February. Job gains occurred in healthcare, government, and construction. Employment showed little change over the month in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; transportation and warehousing; information; financial activities; and professional and business services. After this morning's report, S&P 500 stock futures rose slightly from pre-release levels. The yield on the 10-year Treasury moved higher to 4.40% from 4.33%. Before the release, futures contracts suggested a 94% probability that the Fed will keep the funds target at 5.25%-5.50% when it meets on April 30 and May 1. After the release, there was little change. The chance that the funds rate will be lower after the June meeting (either by 20 or 50 basis points) dropped to 57% from 64%.

Stocks pulled back on Friday morning as investors digested inflation data released this week and ahead of the Fed's policy decision next week. The Labor Department reported that U.S. import prices rose 0.3% in February, matching expectations and down from a 0.8% increase in January. Export prices rose 0.8% after advancing 0.9% in January. Prices for fuel imports advanced 1.8%, while nonfuel imports rose 0.2%. Meanwhile, manufacturing continued to decline. The Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to -20.9 in March from -2.4 in February and below expectations. New orders declined significantly, and employment and hours worked also fell. Input prices softened moderately, while output prices held steady. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the first weeks of March edged down to 76.5 from 76.9 in February. The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, the Dow was down 0.4% and the Nasdaq lost 0.9%. Crude oil traded just above $81 per barrel and gold was down $2 to $2165 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

U. S. stocks closed at session lows on Thursday on uncertainty regarding the Fed's policy as well as continuing attacks on the Red Sea shipping vessels. Economic data released Thursday showed the labor market remains strong. Last week's initial jobless claims came in at 202,000, down from 220,000 in the prior week. The Street had been expecting new claims to remain at 220,000. The U.S. added 164,000 private sector jobs in December according to ADP's National Employment Report, up from 103,000 in November and higher than the expected 130,000. The Dow closed just above the flat line, while the S&P 500 gained 0.3% and the Nasdaq was up 0.6%. Crude oil traded just above $72 per barrel, while gold rose $8 to $2051 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Dividend income is often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market. But dividends are an important element of return. Dividend income accounted for 42% of the total return of the S&P 500 between 1930 and 2012, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some of those decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for a smaller portion of returns, at around 15%-20%. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks. High-yield stocks typically have dividends that pay out in the 5%-8% range. Though the income appears attractive, the share prices of high-yield stocks may be at risk. Dividend-growth stocks typically have lower yields, often in the 1.0%-2.5% range. But the lower-yielding dividends are not likely to be a huge component of cash flow, leaving management teams with other value-additive options for deploying cash. Further, while the yields are not as high, management teams may be more likely to boost the payouts over time, as earnings grow.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Innovation may be hard to define. But to borrow from former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, you know it when you see it. The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles to a large degree - have moved overseas, where labor and materials costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy, even during the pandemic and the current period of high inflation, has expanded to record levels. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, creating new products (such as vaccines) and services (such as Zoom calls) and moving into new markets and applications, the domestic economy would not be growing, and capital would not be flooding into the country. The current high level of the U.S. dollar relative to currencies around the world attests to the confidence that global investors have in the durable and innovative U.S. economy.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Our bond/stock asset-allocation model is indicating that bonds are the asset class offering the most value at the current market juncture, as interest rates have risen over the past few weeks. Our model takes into account current levels and forecasts of short-term and long-term government and corporate fixed-income yields, inflation, stock prices, GDP, and corporate earnings, among other factors. The output is expressed in terms of standard deviations to the mean, or sigma. The mean reading from the model, going back to 1960, is a modest premium for stocks, of 0.15 sigma, with a standard deviation of 1.0. The current valuation level is a 0.98 sigma premium for stocks, inside the normal range but up from the 0.50% sigma premium at the beginning of the year. Stock valuations have risen not only because stock prices are higher for the year, but because interest rates have been climbing as well. Indeed, the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year bond yield is now near 20-year highs. Other valuation measures show reasonable multiples for stocks. The current forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 16, which is within the normal range of 10-21 and down from 22 a year ago. The current S&P 500 dividend yield of 1.5%, while below the historical average of 2.9%, is up from an ultralow 1.2% as recently as 2021. Looking ahead, we expect the results from our stock-bond valuation model to improve, as interest rates start to decline next year and EPS growth picks up. Based on the current valuation levels, as well as those interest rate and earnings forecasts, we have called for a recovery in stock prices in 2023 from bear-market lows and are maintaining our year-end S&P 500 target of 4,600. Our current recommended asset allocation for moderate accounts is 67% growth assets, including 65% equities and 2% alternatives; and 33% fixed income, with a focus on opportunistic segments of the bond market.

Stocks edged up on Thursday. Pending home sales fell nationwide by an average of 7.1% in August. Elevated mortgage rates, which reached a 23-year high this week, continue to keep most homeowners from relocating, thus reducing available inventory for prospective buyers. Turning to stocks, shares of Peloton Interactive (PTON) popped today on the announcement of a five-year partnership with Lululemon Athletica (LULU). Jabil Inc. (JBL) soared 19% after the contract manufacturer exceeded consensus non-GAAP EPS expectations for fiscal 4Q23 and provided above-consensus EPS guidance for fiscal 1Q24. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 0.8%. Crude oil fell 1% to $91.80 per barrel, while gold traded fell to $1883 per ounce.

The stock market didn't like the Fed's tone and sold off late Wednesday, with downside follow-through on Thursday. The major indices all appear to be tracing out ABC declines as they all have broken their short-term triangles. We have seen short-term sell signals for all three majors as the 5/13 exponential moving average crossovers have gone bearish. The 21-day rate-of-change also has turned negative for the three indices, another short-term negative.

U.S. equities rose on Wednesday morning. The Labor Department said that its all-items consumer price index rose 3.7% on a year-over-year basis in August, up from a 3.2% year-over-year increase in and slightly above the consensus forecast of 3.6%. Rising energy prices drove the increase. Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 4.3% from the prior year, down from 4.7% in July. The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, the Dow 0.2% and the Nasdaq was up 0.5%. Crude oil is trading near $89 per barrel, while gold traded at $1935 per ounce.

Crude oil (WTI) is trading around $84.65 and is approaching the top of its range going back to late last year. The recent pullback was small and turned right at the important 50-week moving average. Breakouts from sideways consolidations start in the upper one-third to one-half of a price range, not from the bottom of the range -- so oil is starting to look interesting. WTI needs to clear the recent high near $85 with some conviction. That would open the door for a number of upside targets in the near- to intermediate-term window.

The big winners in 2023 had another tough day on Wednesday, so there may be something to this mean reversion. The Nasdaq fell 1.2%, the Nasdaq 100 gave up 1%, and the S&P 500 fell 0.7%; meanwhile, the more-diversified NYSE lost only 0.3%. The three weakest sectors on Wednesday are all leaders in the year-to-date, with Technology (XLK) off 1.3% for the session, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) down 1.2%, and Communication Services (XLC) down 1.1%. XLK was the only one of the leading sectors to lose its 50-day average for the first time since March, when the big move higher kicked into gear.

The U.S. economy generated 209,000 new jobs in June, above our forecast of 190,000 but well below May's revised 306,000. The unemployment rate declined to 3.6% from 3.7% in May. Gains in April and May were revised lower by 110,000 jobs. Before this morning's release, futures contracts suggested a 95% probability that the Fed would raise its target range by 25 basis points to 5.25%-5.50% at its July 26 meeting, and a 26% chance of an additional 25-basis-point increase on September 23. After the release, a July rate hike remains almost certain. The probability of a September rate hike, to 5.5%-5.75%, dropped slightly to 23%. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.3%. Crude oil rose more than 1% to $73 per barrel, while gold rose $22 to $1937 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

In the stock market, in sports, and in many other forums, it's hard to knock a dominant force off a peak. Again on Tuesday, the top three sectors in 2023 came alive and led the market higher. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.2%), Technology (XLK +2%), and Communication Services (XLC +1.7%) dominated despite being very extended technically and in a steep advance (which sometimes indicates a top is near). For 2023, XLK has soared 38%, XLC has popped 35%, and XLY has tacked on 30%. The next-best 2023 sector is Industrials (XLI), with an 8% gain.

Dividend income is often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market. Thus far in 2023, market bulls are boasting about first-half S&P 500 returns that may top 15%. No one is very focused on the broad market index's 1.6% current yield. But dividends are an important element of return. Dividend income accounted for 42% of the total return of the S&P 500 between 1930 and 2012, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some of those decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for a smaller portion of returns, at around 15%-20%. In 2018, dividend payments softened the blow when most market indices declined as the Fed hiked rates. The pattern was repeated in 2022. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks.

While one day does not make a trend, it can indicate that a potential change in a strong up or down trend is coming, especially when using daily candlesticks. The weekly candlestick is of more value than the daily, and the monthly stick is more valuable than the weekly. After a 12.2% surge in the Nasdaq 100 and a 10.6% pop in the Nasdaq over the past 21 days (and a trip into fairly overbought territory on a daily basis), both indices traced out shooting-star candlesticks on Monday. That is an exhaustion signal. A shooting star occurs after a large move higher and it shows a day when the index closes towards the bottom of its intraday range, demonstrating that sellers took advantage of higher prices early in the day and claimed profits.

Weekly Tee Up: Jobs Friday

Innovation may be hard to define but, to borrow from former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, you know it when you see it. The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles, to a large degree - have moved overseas, where costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy is at its largest point in history and still growing. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, creating new products and services, and moving into new markets and applications, the domestic economy would be contracting, not expanding, and capital would not be flooding into the country. Particularly at this juncture of the market and economic cycles, when uncertainty is high due to high inflation and rising interest rates, we look to innovative companies to successfully navigate the challenges. At Argus, an 88-year-old independent research firm that has innovated a time or two in its long history, we have focused on four types of innovative companies: Industry Disruptors; First to Market; New Product Specialists; and Product & Process Perfectors. Here are some examples of companies, featured in our Innovation Theme Model Portfolio.

Innovation may be hard to define. But to borrow from former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, you know it when you see it. The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles to a large degree - have moved overseas, where labor and materials costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy, even during the pandemic and the current period of high inflation, has expanded to record levels. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, creating new products (such as vaccines) and services (such as Zoom calls) and moving into new markets and applications, the domestic economy would not be growing, and capital would not be flooding into the country. The current high level of the U.S. dollar relative to currencies around the world attests to the confidence that global investors have in the durable and innovative U.S. economy.

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning ahead of a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Investors will be watching to see whether Mr. Powell strikes a more hawkish tone after last week's post-rate-hike news conference and strong January employment report. Baidu shares jumped 11% on news that the Chinese tech company would launch a new artificial intelligence chatbot, similar to ChatGPT, in March. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.4%. Crude oil rose $3 to $77 per barrel, while gold rose $9 to $1989 per ounce.

The Federal Reserve wrapped up its latest Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday and, as expected, raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bps). The move follows four consecutive hikes of 75 basis points and one of 50 bps, and brings the rate to a range of 4.50% to 4.75%. This was the eighth increase since the central bank lowered the fed funds rate to the rock-bottom level of 0.00%-0.25% early in the pandemic All 12 governors were in agreement about the hike as inflation remains elevated (the latest core CPI reading was 5.7% and the latest core PCE Price Index reading was 4.4%). In a press release announcing the hike, the Fed said that it anticipates that "ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate." Looking ahead, we think the central bank is on track for two more 25-basis-point rate hikes in 1H23 before moving to the sidelines for an extended period of time. We remain concerned that the Fed is tossing its other mandate (full employment) out the window as it fights high prices. Indeed, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell commented in the press conference at the conclusion of the meeting that the "full effects" of the rate hikes have "yet to be felt." Already, the hikes have brought growth in the housing market to a standstill. Will the consumer sector be next? The U.S. economy has been walking a fine line between expansion and contraction for the past four quarters. Substantially higher interest rates could tip the economy into recession this year, and send the unemployment rate up toward 5.0%. We think the central bank may well be lowering rates later this year.

Dividend income, an important element of total return, is often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market. Between 1930 and 2012, dividend income accounted for 42% of the total return of the S&P 500, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for 15%-20% of returns. Still, in 2018, dividend payments softened the blow when most market indices declined as the Federal Reserve hiked rates. The pattern was repeated in 2022 as well. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks.

The Federal Reserve wrapped up its latest Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday and, as expected, raised the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 4.25%-4.50%. This followed the previous four hikes of 75 basis points and was the seventh increase since the central bank lowered the fed funds rate to the rock-bottom level of 0.00%-0.25% early in the pandemic. All 12 governors were in agreement about the hike, as inflation remains elevated (the latest CPI reading was 7.1%). In a press release announcing the hike, the Fed said that it anticipates that "ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate." Looking ahead, the central bank is now planning for another 75-100 basis points in fed funds increases in 2023, and it is not anticipating lowering rates until 2024. We remain concerned that the Fed is tossing its other mandate -- full employment -- out the window as it fights high prices. Already, the rate hikes in 2022 have brought growth in the housing market to a standstill. Will the consumer sector be next? The U.S. economy has been walking a fine line between expansion and contraction for the past three quarters. Substantially higher interest rates could tip GDP into recession early next year, and send the unemployment rate up toward 5.0%. We think the central bank may well be lowering rates later next year.

As of this writing, there are only 14 trading days left in 2022, and the S&P 500 is down 17.5%, the Nasdaq is off 30%, the Nasdaq 100 has lost 29%, the NYSE has given up 11%, the Dow Industrials are lower by (only) 8%, the S&P 400 has declined 13%, and the Russell 2000 has given back 19%.

The Federal Reserve wrapped up its latest Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday and, as expected, raised the federal funds rate by 75 basis points (for the fourth time in a row, the first time ever) to 3.75%-4.00%. This was the sixth increase since the central bank lowered the fed funds rate to the rock-bottom level of 0.00%-0.25% early in the pandemic. All 12 Fed governors were in agreement about the hike, as inflation remains elevated (the latest CPI reading was 8.2%). In a press release announcing the hike, the Fed said that it anticipates that "ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate." The Fed also stated that it is "strongly committed" to returning inflation to its 2% objective. In the press conference after the meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell doubled down on the bank's hawkish stance, claiming that it is "very premature" to be talking about pausing rate hikes. We remain concerned that the Fed is tossing its other mandate (full employment) out the window as it fights high prices. Already, the rate hikes in 2022 have brought growth in the housing market to a standstill. Will the consumer sector be next? The U.S. economy has been walking a fine line between expansion and contraction for the past three quarters. Substantially higher interest rates could tip GDP into recession as early as next year. Our forecasts currently call for one more big increase later this year (50 bps in December) and then one 25-basis-point increase in 2024. Anything more could send the unemployment rate back toward 6.0%.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Innovation may be hard to define. But to borrow from former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, you know it when you see it. The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles to a large degree - have moved overseas, where labor and materials costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy, even during the pandemic and the current period of high inflation, has expanded to record levels. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, creating new products (such as vaccines) and services (such as Zoom calls) and moving into new markets and applications, the domestic economy would not be growing, and capital would not be flooding into the country. The current high level of the U.S. dollar relative to currencies around the world attests to the confidence that global investors have in the innovative U.S. economy.

Innovation may be hard to define, but to borrow from former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, you know it when you see it. The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles, to a large degree - have moved overseas, where costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy is at its largest point in history and still growing. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, creating new products and services, and moving into new markets and applications, the domestic economy would be contracting, not expanding, and capital would not be flooding into the country. Particularly at this juncture of the market and economic cycles, when uncertainty is high due to high inflation and rising interest rates, we look for innovative companies to navigate the challenges successfully. At Argus, an 88-year-old independent research firm that has innovated a time or two in its long history, we have focused on four types of innovative companies: Industry Disruptors; First to Market; New Product Specialists; and Product & Process Perfectors. Here are some examples of companies, featured in our Innovation theme model portfolio.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

In this edition, Utilities Control the Path to Decarbonization, REIT Sector's relationship With Inflation and Interest Rates, Contract Research Organizations Are Poised for Healthy Growth, and Sony/Nintendo, VF Company, and Burberry

Stocks were mixed in volatile trading on Monday morning amid continued concerns about recession and Fed rate hikes. In the UK, the pound fell to a historical low against the dollar, reflecting investor dissatisfaction with the government's new budget and plans for substantial tax cuts. The euro also reached a new 20-year low against the dollar following the victory of the extreme right in Sunday's Italian election. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P rose 0.4%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.8%. Crude oil fell nearly 2% to $80 per barrel, while gold fell $2 to $1653 per ounce.

In this edition, Record Wind Installations Loom, Reinitiating Coverage of EDP, Inflation Reduction Act and its Impact on the U.S. Branded Drug Market, and Costco, Accenture, and DTE Energy

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks fell on Thursday morning, led by sharp declines in the Energy, Basic Materials, and Financial sectors. JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley shares both fell after the companies reported disappointing 2Q earnings, hurt by weakness in investment banking. The Dow fell 1.4%, the S&P 1.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.8%. Crude oil fell 3% to $93 per barrel, while gold traded near $1703 per ounce.

For a market technician (chartist), it is never a bad idea to look at longer-term (weekly, monthly) charts of the major indices. Indeed, you don't want to miss the forest for the trees. A four-hour chart is more important than a one-hour chart; a daily is more important than the four-hour; and the weekly is more important than the daily (and so on).