Stocks are flat. Trading is light given the holiday weekend coming. Oil and gold are both down. It's been a bumpy few days.

At midday, the stock-market slump continues on concerns about interest rates. Blue-chip stocks are leading most market indices lower today, as Dow Jones Industrial Average is off 1%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down slightly to 4.70%. Gold and oil are flat today, while Bitcoin is up 1%.

The first quarter of 2024 was rewarding for equity investors, as the S&P 500 increased 10.2%. Much of the market participated, as the S&P 500 Growth Index advanced 12.6% and the S&P 500 Value Index rose 7.4%. Leading sectors included Communication Services (+15.6%), Energy (+12.7%), Technology (+12.5%), Financials (+12%), and Industrials (+10.6%). The average stock in the Argus Universe of Coverage rose 8.0% during the year, and the median stock advanced 7.2%. The average BUY-rated stock increased 9.9%, while the average HOLD-rated stock gained 3%. Will the market's breadth hold up for the balance of 2024 or will investors revert to the so-called Magnificent 7? Will small-caps pick up their pace (the Russell 2000 was up "only" 4.8% in 1Q) or is the current bull-market rally due for a break, with some profit-taking coming into play? Given declining interest rates, we expect growth stocks to continue to lead stocks higher, while the risk of recession puts a premium on clean balance sheets, which are also more prevalent among large-caps. Investors seeking value are encouraged to focus on dividends and look for yields in the 3%-4% range. Here are the Top 10 Performers from the Argus Universe last quarter (including representatives of six of the 11 major sectors) as well as the Bottom-Five Performers.

After the heavy-volume, bearish reversal on March 8 for the Nasdaq, Nasdasq 100 (QQQ), semiconductors, and most of the Technology sector, we had some downside follow-through for the first time since this monster rally started in October 2023. The QQQs and the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) have lost their 21-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) by a minor amount. Still, for more than four months, the 21-day EMA has been quickly recaptured whenever this happened.

Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 hit new highs on inflation data that came in as expected. Other economic data released today included initial jobless claims, which came to 215,000, up from last week's revised 212,000 and ahead of expectations. Ongoing unemployment rose to 1,905,000 from the previous week's revised 1,860,000; that raised the insured unemployment rate by 0.1% to 1.3%. The S&P 500 rose 0.5%, the Nasdaq gained 0.9%, while the Dow fell 0.1%.

In 2023, the S&P 500 climbed almost 24%, skewed heavily by a handful of tech and consumer stocks that recovered from the pandemic. The top-10 stocks in the Argus Universe advanced, on average, 180%, while the top-20 rose 140%. The average stock rose 17%, and the median stock advanced 7%. The average BUY-rated stock increased 20%, while the average HOLD-rated stock gained 8%. Will investors continue to favor growth in 2024? Will small-caps reverse their recent thrust as the risk of recession puts a premium on clean balance sheets? Investors seeking value are encouraged to focus on dividends and yields in the 3%-4% range. As for small-caps and international stocks, valuations remain depressed -- and these group looks to offer value into 2024 as market breadth likely widens. Below are the top-10 performers from the Argus Universe last year, with representatives in six of the 11 major sectors, as well as the bottom-five performers.

Be the news good or bad, our analysis of insider-transaction data from Vickers Stock Research is most actionable when the data in question is aligned. That is very much the case this week, and the current alignment points to positive trends. With earnings season at an end, the weekly volume of insider transactions is back to normal, which is meaningful for our analysis.

Stocks were mixed on Friday morning. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 187,000 jobs were added in August, while the July nonfarm payroll was revised to 157,000. The unemployment rate rose to 3.8%, while expectations were for the rate to remain steady from July at 3.5%. Average hourly wages rose 0.24% in August, with service-producing wages accounting for the increase while goods-producing wages remained largely unchanged. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 500 was nearly breakeven, and the Nasdaq fell 0.3%. Crude oil traded at $85 per barrel, while gold was unchanged at $1966 per ounce.

Stocks started a new bull market in 2Q23, as the S&P 500 climbed 20% above bear-market lows from last October. For the quarter, the index climbed about 8%. Performance was narrow in 2Q, led by last year's laggard sectors, including Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology. Last year's top-performing sector, Energy, and the Utility sector, were the worst performers in 2Q23. The average stock in the diversified Argus Universe of Coverage rose 4% in the quarter, and the median stock advanced 2%. The average Argus BUY-rated stock rose 5.7%, while the average HOLD-rated stock gained 1.2%. We recently raised our sector rating on Consumer Discretionary to Over-Weight, as the employment environment is strong. We also look for a pick-up in EPS growth in Communication Services and Technology, and expect these groups to pace broad market performance. Below are the top 10 performers from the Argus Universe in 2Q23, many from Technology and Communication Services. After that, we list the bottom five performers.

The S&P 500 (SPX) slightly exceeded the top of its bullish channel on June 15, but sold off on June 16 and is back inside the channel. A sustained break above the channel brings the next key area of resistance into play, as a 78.6% retracement of the bear-market low is at 4,535. Chart resistance from the March 2022 high is at 4,628.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Monday Tee Up: CPI and Silicon Valley Bank Fallout

Dividend growth is among our most-important investment themes in 2023, and stretches across industries. At this stage of the economic and market cycles, Argus recommends that investors pay close attention to dividend growth. We think consistent -- and accelerated -- dividend growth at a company gives three important signals to investors: 1) the company's balance sheet is strong enough to pay a dividend; 2) management is mindful of shareholder returns, which include dividends; and 3) a significant dividend increase can be a message from management that the near-term outlook for the company is promising, even during a pandemic. In particular, we like companies that have grown their dividends at an average double-digit pace over the past five years. Stocks on our BUY list that meet this test include the following.

Dividend income, an important element of total return, is often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market. Between 1930 and 2012, dividend income accounted for 42% of the total return of the S&P 500, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for 15%-20% of returns. Still, in 2018, dividend payments softened the blow when most market indices declined as the Federal Reserve hiked rates. The pattern was repeated in 2022 as well. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks.

Monday Tee Up: This Week is About Next Week

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID stocks) have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but still may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be less disrupted by the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. SMID stocks can be risky -- and large-caps outperformed SMID stocks in 11 of the 19 years in our test period. Still, despite the risks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 12%-15% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of SMID stocks. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $20 billion to define a SMID stock.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver his much anticipated speech in Jackson Hole on Friday morning. Investors will be scrutinizing Mr. Powell's comments for clues about the size of the September interest rate hike, and the pace of additional hikes later this year and in 2023. Ahead of the Fed conference, Kansas City Fed President Esther George said that it was 'too soon' to predict the size of the September hike, and that the decision would depend on upcoming economic data. On Thursday, the Commerce Department reported a smaller-than-expected decline in 2Q GDP. First-time claims for state unemployment benefits were down slightly from the prior week and below the consensus forecast. The Dow rose 0.98%, the S&P 1.41%, and the Nasdaq 1.67%. Crude oil fell 2% to $93 per barrel, while gold rose $10 to $1771 per ounce.

Our bond/stock asset-allocation model is indicating that both stocks and bonds are overvalued, despite sell-offs in 2022. Our model takes into account levels and forecasts of short-term and long-term government and corporate fixed-income yields, inflation, stock prices, GDP, and corporate earnings, among other factors. The output is expressed in terms of standard deviations to the mean, or sigma. The mean reading, going back to 1960, is a modest premium for stocks, of 0.15 sigma, with a standard deviation of 1.0. The current valuation level is a 1.0 sigma premium for stocks, within the normal range. Generally, the model has done a good job highlighting asset-class value. Stocks were attractive compared to bonds in the late 1970s, when benchmark Treasury rates were in the high teens before heading consistently lower. The model indicated that stocks were at a premium to fair value compared to bonds prior to the "dot-com" crash of 2001 and also prior to the Great Recession in 2007-2009. Starting in 2009, at the depths of the financial crisis, the model indicated stocks were deeply oversold -- another good call. Markets can manage with premiums and discounts for extended periods. Based on the current model inputs, we are expecting a continued recovery in stock prices from bear-market lows and have revised our year-end S&P 500 target to 4,300 from 4,100. Our recommended asset allocation for moderate accounts is 70% growth assets, including 65% equities and 5% alternatives; and 30% fixed income, with 200 basis points of the allocation in cash.

Dividend income, an important element of total return, is often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market. Between 1930 and 2012, dividend income accounted for 42% of the total return of the S&P 500, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for 15%-20% of returns. Still, in 2018, dividend payments softened the blow when most market indices declined as the Federal Reserve hiked rates. The pattern is being repeated in 2022 as well. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks.

Stocks rose strongly on Thursday following solid earnings reports from Macy's and other retailers, and a major Tech sector acquisition, as chipmaker Broadcom announced that it would purchase VMware for $61 billion. On the economic front, the Commerce Department reported that U.S. GDP contracted at a 1.5% annualized rate in 1Q, a slight weakening from its initial estimate of a 1.4% decline, and down from 6.9% growth in the fourth quarter. Employment data was slightly better than expected. First-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 210,000 for the week ended May 21, down from 218,000 a week earlier and below the consensus estimate of 215,000. The Dow rose 1.61%, the S&P 1.99%, and the Nasdaq 2.68%. Crude oil traded near $114 per barrel, while gold rose $3 to $1850 per ounce.

Our bond/stock asset-allocation model indicates that both stocks and bonds are overvalued, and the recent sell-off in fixed-income securities has pushed up the valuation on stocks (despite the drop in stock prices). Our model takes into account levels and forecasts of short-term and long-term fixed-income yields, inflation, stock prices, GDP, and corporate earnings, among other factors. The output is in standard deviations to the mean, or sigma. The mean reading from the model, going back to 1960, is a modest premium for stocks of 0.15 sigma, with a standard deviation of 1.0. The current valuation level is a 1.0 sigma premium for stocks, which is still within the normal range. The model has done a good job of highlighting asset-class value. Stocks were very attractive compared to bonds in the late 1970s, when benchmark Treasury rates were in the high teens before heading consistently lower for decades, in part due to the benefits of globalization. The model indicated that stocks were at a sharp premium to fair value compared to bonds prior to the "dot-com" crash of 2001 and also prior to the Great Recession in 2007-2009. Starting in 2009, at the depths of the financial crisis, the model favored stocks over bonds -- another good call. Markets can manage with premiums and discounts for extended periods of time. Our recommended asset allocation for moderate accounts is 70% growth assets, including 65% equities and 5% alternatives; and 30% fixed income, with 200 basis points of the bond allocation in cash.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID stocks) have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but still may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be less disrupted by the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. That said, SMID stocks can be risky and large-caps outperformed SMID stocks in 11 of the 19 years in our test period. Still, despite the risks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 12%-15% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of SMID stocks. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $20 billion to define a SMID stock.

Our bond/stock asset-allocation model indicates that stocks and bonds -- both of which are overvalued against their own metrics -- are near fair value against each other. Our model takes into account current levels and forecasts of short-term and long-term fixed-income yields, inflation, stock prices, GDP, and corporate earnings. The model output is expressed in terms of standard deviations to the mean, or sigma. The mean reading from the model, going back to 1960, is a modest premium for stocks, of 0.15 sigma, with a standard deviation of 1.0. The current valuation level is 0.55 sigma premium for stocks. The model has done a good job of highlighting asset class value. For example, stocks were very attractive compared to bonds in the late 1970s, when benchmark Treasury rates were in the high teens before heading consistently lower, in part due to the benefits of deglobalization. The model indicated that stocks were at a sharp premium to fair value compared to bonds prior to the "dot-com" crash of 2001 and also at a premium prior to the Great Recession in 2007-2009. Starting in 2009, which was the depths of the financial crisis, the model favored stocks over bonds -- another good call. The markets can manage with premiums and discounts for extended periods of time. We'll become more concerned about equity valuations when the stock premium approaches 1.0 sigma. Our current recommended asset allocation for moderate accounts is 70% growth assets, including 65% equities and 5% alternatives; and 30% fixed income, with 200 basis points of the bond allocation in cash.

Stocks finished lower on Thursday amid the intensifying war in Ukraine, where Russian forces appeared to be encircling Kyiv and gaining control of key Black Sea ports. U.S. employment data was better than expected. The Labor Department said that first-time jobless claims fell to 215,000 for the week ended February 26, down from 233,000 a week earlier and below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 225,000. The data came ahead of the government's February employment report on Friday morning. The consensus calls for the addition of 403,000 new payroll jobs after an increase of 467,000 in January, and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 3.9%. The Dow fell 0.29%, the S&P 0.53%, and the Nasdaq 1.56%. Crude oil traded near $108 per barrel, while gold rose $17 to $1940 per ounce.

Often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market is dividend income, which is an important element of total return. Between 1930 and 2012, dividend income accounted for 42% of total return of the S&P 500, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for 15%-20% of returns. Still, in 2018, dividend payments softened the blow when most market indices declined as the Federal Reserve hiked rates. But not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks.

Just like that, Christmas is here and the end of the year is nigh. And just like the bathrobe-clad kid in 'The Polar Express,' investors want to believe -- if not in Santa, than at least in his rally.

Consumer inflation is elevated -- and the CPI was running at a 5.3% rate in August, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. But pricing pressures are not consistent across the economy. Want to buy a car? You're going to have a hard time saving money, as prices for used cars are 32% higher year-over-year, and prices for new vehicles are up 8%. And that's before you fill the tank, with gasoline prices that have jumped 25% since last summer. Meanwhile, that Uber ride isn't going to be cheap either, as Transportation Services prices have risen almost 5%. Those are some of the outliers that are driving prices higher this year. Yet even so, commodity prices are up almost 8% and that has contributed to food prices that have risen 4%. The price for shelter has climbed only 3%, while prices for medical care services have risen only 1%. That's right, it's a relatively inexpensive time to get sick.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID stocks) soared in 2019. They have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but still may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be poised to rebound more quickly once COVID-19 vaccines are more widely distributed and the domestic service economy recovers. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. That said, SMID stocks can be risky. Still, despite the risks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. Investors used to use a $2 billion market-cap threshold to define a small-cap stock and a $10 billion threshold for a mid-cap. The Russell 2000 index now includes numerous companies with market capitalizations above $15 billion. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $20 billion to define a SMID stock.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID stocks) soared in 2019. They have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but still may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be poised to rebound more quickly once COVID-19 vaccines are more widely distributed and the domestic service economy recovers. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps, as the P/E ratio on the Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index is 18x compared to a P/E of 27x for the S&P 500. Finally, the long-term record has favored SMID stocks over large-caps. From 2003-2021, the Russell 2000 Index had climbed 488%, compared to an advance of 408% for the S&P 500 index. This week's list includes stocks with market caps below $20 billion that are on the Argus BUY list and are included in our Mid-Cap Model Portfolio.

A couple of the major indices are again hitting or approaching some key Fibonacci extension targets, so this is no time to put a portfolio on auto-pilot (even if that's how it feels). The targets are based on the depth of the 'V' bottom back in early 2020. Once an index or individual stock breaks out to all-time highs, there is no chart resistance or supply overhead as every buyer of the asset has a profit. Therefore, potential targets must come from other technical tools like trendlines, the top of a channel, and Fibonacci extensions based on the size of the latest reversal formation.

The rotational trends in insider-sentiment that we discussed last week remain in place for a second week. But the overall insider-sentiment picture gleaned from the weekly data supplied by Vickers Stock Research remains noticeably cautious. This 'more cautious than we prefer' status has been in place for all of 2021, and we continue to tag it as stubborn. Insider sentiment is not so bad as to call for a defensive posture, but it is far from bullish and stuck in a range. Specifically, Vickers' benchmark NYSE/ASE Eight-Week Sell/Buy Ratio has been between 4.58 and 5.97 since early January. Currently, it is at 4.78.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Stocks continued to fall on Tuesday morning, led by the Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors, as investors weighed congressional testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. In remarks prepared for the Senate Banking Committee, Mr. Powell noted that the outlook for the economy was still 'extraordinarily uncertain,' despite the impact of vaccines, and that the U.S. was still 'a long way from our employment and inflation goals.' The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 1.6%. Crude oil traded near $61.50 per barrel, while gold fell $4 to $1804 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Stocks fell sharply on Thursday afternoon on concerns about the economic impact of the pandemic, as new coronavirus cases continued to skyrocket in the U.S. and around the world. The selloff marked a sharp reversal from the start of the week, when markets soared on optimism over the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. On the employment front, first-time unemployment benefit claims fell from the prior week to 709,000, below the consensus forecast of 731,000, and continuing claims fell to 6.786 million, below the consensus of 6.825 million. However, the decline in continuing claims likely reflects the expiration of state benefits for many workers. Including extended federal unemployment benefits, approximately 21.2 million workers were receiving benefits in late October. The Dow fell 1.08%, the S&P 1.00%, and the Nasdaq 0.65%. Crude oil fell more than 1% to $41 per barrel, while gold rose $14 to 1876 per ounce.