Global stocks are gaining, if not at the pace of domestic equities. While the S&P 500 has risen 17% year to date, the EAFA index of large- and mid-cap stocks based in countries other than the U.S. and Canada has gained 9.5%. Over the past five years, the performance gap has been wider, with the S&P 500 advancing 94% compared to a 32% gain in EAFE. But the underperformance has given global stocks a valuation advantage, particularly in the area of dividends. Consider that the EAFE dividend yield of 2.9% is 170 basis points higher than the comparable S&P 500 dividend yield. We think global dividend stocks now offer opportunity, particularly given the endless speculation over the direction of interest rates in the U.S., which has created market-timing headaches for equity income investors, who have endured recent wide swings in prices for rate-sensitive equity in areas such as utilities, REITs and MLPs. In our view, investing in international income stocks is one way to increase portfolio diversification while reducing sensitivity to volatile U.S. interest rates. Investing in overseas stocks carries its own set of risks, including the impact of currency exchange and geopolitical turmoil. But there are also a number of positives in this asset class for U.S. investors, including a wide selection of companies that pay dividends, robust industry diversification, and, as we have mentioned, higher yields and lower valuations. Argus has recently boosted its global coverage, and recommends the following international dividend stocks, each of which has at least a long-term BUY rating from an Argus analyst. Note this list of approximately 25-30 companies offers exposure to eight of the 11 major industrial sectors. The list includes companies from 10 countries.

Investors and analysts of all stripes seem amazed by the speed at which stocks are recovering from the early August swoon. Insiders, who had been so pessimistic a just few weeks ago, are included in this group. Among the positive indicators, the Insider Index from Vickers Stock Research has moved in a positive direction for a second week, marking its least-bearish reading since early May. Additionally, Vickers' Total One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio, NYSE One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio, and Nasdaq One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio are all lower (bullish) for a second week, and down dramatically from highs seen a mere three weeks ago. The above has led Vickers' Total, NYSE, and Nasdaq Eight-Week Sell/Buy Ratios to also move lower for the first time in months. And all of the above is taking place in an environment that features growing transaction volume now that earnings-related trading restrictions are falling away. On a sector basis, insider buying outpaced selling in the Energy sector by a factor of 2.75-times. On the flipside, selling by insiders last week was greatest in Information Technology, with shares valued at $157 million sold versus $25 million bought. This week, analysts at Vickers highlighted insider transactions of interest at Quanta Services Inc. (NYSE: PWR) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP).

Stocks closed higher on Thursday as investors digested new economic data. The January ISM Manufacturing PMI index registered a reading of 49.1, up from 47.1 in December, with growth in new orders, production, and prices, while backlogs, employment and inventories contracted. The S&P Global's reading of 50.7 is up from 47.9 in December, with an increase in new orders, and both input and output prices and employment increased fractionally. U.S. construction spending rose 0.9% in December, following a 0.4% increase in November. Meta Platforms (META) reported after the close and was up more than 14% within an hour after releasing results. Likewise, Amazon.com (AMZN) rose nearly 13%. The S&P 500 closed up 1.3%, the Dow 0.1% and the Nasdaq gained 1.3%. Crude oil fell to just below $73 per barrel, while gold was up $5 to $2072 per ounce.

Argus Analysts' Top Picks 2024

Global stocks are picking up the pace. While the S&P 500 has jumped almost 11% in the past month, the EAFA index of large- and mid-cap stocks based in countries other than the U.S. and Canada has risen 10%. Over the past six years, the performance gap has been wider, with the S&P 500 advancing 12% compared to a 7% gain for the EAFE. But the underperformance has given global stocks a valuation advantage, particularly in the area of dividends. The EAFE dividend yield of 2.4% is 80 basis points higher than the comparable S&P 500 dividend yield. We think global dividend stocks now offer opportunity, particularly given the endless speculation over the direction of interest rates in the U.S., which has created market-timing headaches for equity income investors. Those investors have endured recent wide swings in prices for rate-sensitive equity sectors such as Utilities, REITs and MLPs. In our view, investing in international income stocks is one way to increase portfolio diversification while reducing sensitivity to volatile U.S interest rates. Investing in overseas stocks carries its own set of risks, including the impact of currency exchange and geopolitical turmoil. But there are also a number of positives in this asset class for U.S. investors, including a wide selection of companies that pay dividends, robust industry diversification, and, as we have mentioned, higher yields and lower valuations. Argus has recently boosted its global coverage, and recommends the following international dividend stocks, each of which has at least a long-term HOLD rating from an Argus analyst.

Stocks were mostly higher on Monday morning as investors awaited earnings from Home Depot and Walmart, along with July retail sales data and the Fed's latest meeting minutes later this week. In M&A news, U.S. Steel shares jumped 27% after an unsolicited buyout offer from competitor Cleveland-Cliffs. U.S. Steel rejected the offer, but said that it would review its options and noted that it had offers from other bidders. The Dow was flat, the S&P rose 0.4%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.7%. Crude oil fell slightly to $83 per barrel while gold traded near $1942 per ounce.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional stock ownership trends. Form 13-Fs, which institutions must file to report their holdings, are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and have now come in from 1Q23. We review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners and ValueAct Holdings, among others, in order to determine their core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Activists have made progress in the past year with high-profile investments into blue-chip companies such as FedEx Inc. and Union Pacific. Based on Vickers data, here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of Activist investors, as well as other high-profile money managers such as Warren Buffet of Berkshire Hathaway and Ken Griffin of Citadel Advisors LLC.

Global stocks are on a run. While the S&P 500 has jumped almost 8% year-to-date, The EAFA Index of large- and mid-cap stocks based in countries other than the U.S. and Canada has risen 9%. Over the past six months, foreign stocks also have outperformed, climbing 11% versus a 1% decline by the U.S. market. The story is different over the past five years, as the S&P 500 has risen 50% and global stocks have fallen 1%. Even so, the long outperformance has given global stocks a valuation advantage, particularly in the area of dividends. The EAFE dividend yield of 2.7% is 100 basis points higher than the comparable S&P 500 dividend yield. We think global dividend stocks now offer opportunity, particularly given the endless speculation over the direction of interest rates in the U.S., which has created market-timing headaches for equity income investors - who have endured recent wide swings in prices for rate-sensitive equity sectors such as utilities, REITs and MLPs. In our view, investing in international income stocks is one way to increase portfolio diversification while reducing sensitivity to volatile U.S. interest rates. Investing in overseas stocks carries its own set of risks, including the impact of currency exchange and geopolitical turmoil. But there are also a number of positives in this asset class for U.S. investors, including a wide selection, robust industry diversification, and, as we have mentioned, higher yields and lower valuations. Argus recently boosted its global coverage, and recommends the following international dividend stocks, each of which has at least a long-term BUY rating from an Argus analyst. This list of approximately 25 companies offers exposure to eight of the 11 major industrial sectors. The list includes companies from 10 countries.

Stocks fell on Monday morning, led by declines in the Technology, Communication Services, and Energy sectors. Investors awaited a heavy week for earnings, including reports from Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet, and the Fed's interest rate announcement on Wednesday. A 25-basis-point hike is widely expected, though much of the focus will again be on Chairman Powell's follow-up press conference. Investors will also weigh the government's January employment report on Friday morning. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P 0.8%, and the Nasdaq 1.3%. Crude oil traded near $79 per barrel, while gold fell $7 to $1939 per ounce.

10 Investment Themes for 2023

Dividends are supposed to lend stability to a portfolio. However, U.S.-based income investors have experienced a high degree of volatility in recent years, as the Federal Reserve since 2018 has embarked on two campaigns to raise interest rates, sandwiched around a desperate program that lowered the federal funds rate to zero in order to help the economy recover from the pandemic. The endless speculation over the direction of rates has created market-timing headaches for equity income investors. They have endured wide swings in prices for rate-sensitive equity sectors such as Utilities, REITs and MLPs. In our view, investing in international income stocks is one way to increase portfolio diversification while reducing sensitivity to volatile U.S interest rates. Investing in overseas stocks carries its own set of risks, including the impact of currency exchange and geopolitical turmoil. But there are also a number of positives in this asset class for U.S. investors, including a wide selection, robust industry diversification, higher yields, and lower valuations. Argus has recently boosted its global coverage, and recommends the following international dividend stocks. Note this list of 25 companies offers exposure to eight of the 11 major sectors. The list includes companies from 10 countries.

Monday Tee-Up: No Summer Doldrums on Wall Street

Rapidly rising inflation in 2022 has knocked the stock market into a bear market. While growth strategies have suffered the most, value strategies also have declined. Even year-to-date bond prices are lower. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. As well, those returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was much higher than the current 3.0% level. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history, indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

This edition features a roundup of analyst research on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and Campbell, JD.com, and Guidewire.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) popped back to $92.83/barrel on February 21 after pulling back to $87.46 on February 18, as the Russian/Ukraine situation remains volatile. If higher interest rates and the prospect of war overseas is not enough for the stock market, higher prices for gasoline, heating oil, and natural gas are certainly weighing on some low- to middle-income consumers. It's ironic that as the pandemic seems to be winding down, stock markets have 'bigger' worries to consider.

The onset of the coronavirus in 2020 knocked stocks into a bear market. Though equities have recovered, the U.S. economy is about to slow down and COVID-19 cases are rising again as virus variants spread. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Daily prices can swing wildly, as they did in January 2022 when the S&P 500 fell 5%. Is it time for investors to cash in their chips? Perhaps not yet. We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. As well, those returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was not sub-2.0%. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point returns history, indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods. We have designed a portfolio of companies followed by Argus Research analysts that are BUY-rated and have impressive Min Vol characteristics of low beta, high yield, high market cap, strong balance sheets and low risk profiles. Here are some of the stocks featured in the portfolio.

The onset of the coronavirus in 2020 knocked stocks into a bear market. Though equities recovered, the U.S. economy is about to slow down and COVID-19 cases are rising again as virus variants spread. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Daily prices can swing wildly, as they did three times in 2021 when stocks dropped 4%-5% in a matter of a few days. Is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. As well, those returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was not sub-2.0%. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

Argus Analysts' Top Picks 2022. Below are the top picks for 2022 from Argus' analysts.

Stocks were mixed on Friday morning following a better-than-expected July employment report. The Labor Department said that the U.S. added 943,000 payroll jobs in July, up from a revised 938,000 in June and above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 865,000. The reading was the strongest since August 2020. The official unemployment rate fell to 5.4%, down from 5.9% in June and below the consensus of 5.7%. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.2%. Crude oil traded near $69 per barrel, while gold fell $44 to $1765 per ounce.

Dividends are supposed to lend stability to a portfolio. However, U.S.-based equity income investors have experienced a high degree of volatility in recent years as the endless speculation over the direction of rates has created market-timing headaches. Investors have endured wide swings in prices for rate-sensitive equity sectors such as utilities, REITs and MLPs. In our view, investing in international income stocks is one way to increase portfolio diversification while reducing sensitivity to volatile U.S interest rates. Investing in overseas stocks carries its own set of risks, including the impact of currency exchange and geopolitical turmoil. But there are also a number of positives in this segment for U.S. investors.

The U.S. economy added 559,000 jobs in May, up from April's weak growth of 266,000, and the unemployment rate ticked lower to 5.8%. Revisions to previous months' jobs totals raised the count by 27,000. The re-opening trend was noticeable, as jobs gains were led by sectors such as leisure and hospitality (+292k) and local government education (53k). Industries including healthcare, manufacturing and transportation also added jobs. The labor market continues to reflect the impact of the pandemic, as the shape and character of the workforce is changing as the economy recovers. The current number of jobs is approximately 3.6 million lower than the pre-COVID February 2020 level. The labor force participation rate remains a low 61.6%, compared to the historical average of 65%. Last month, 17% of employed persons teleworked because of the pandemic. On Thursday, the Labor Department reported that 385,000 people filed initial unemployment claims, down from 500,000 a month ago. Though trending in the right direction, these data points indicate that the employment environment is still under stress. We expect the unemployment rate will remain above 5.0% into 2022 and that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates low.

In the early months of 2021, we detailed overall insider sentiment that was more bearish than we like to see, but not so bearish that we were calling for a meaningful correction. The bearishness was broad-based, but led by cautionary trading from insiders at companies that list on the Nasdaq (often technology firms).

Just before the 2020 holiday season, we started commenting on insider sentiment that was trending in a bearish direction. Two weeks ago, we started to pound the table a bit, as the broadest sell/buy ratio from Vickers Stock Research (the Total Eight-Week Sell/Buy Ratio, which includes all insider transactions that meet the criteria for inclusion in the Weekly Insider Report) started to reach worrisome levels. By the numbers, the ratio was 8.63 last week (with anything over 2.50 bearish) and included a Nasdaq component reading of 10.63.

Dividends are supposed to lend stability to a portfolio. However, U.S.-based equity income investors have experienced a high degree of volatility in recent years. In our view, investing in international income stocks is one way to increase portfolio diversification while reducing sensitivity to volatile U.S interest rates. Investing in overseas stocks carries its own set of risks, including the impact of currency exchange and geopolitical turmoil. But there are also a number of positives in this segment for U.S. investors. One is a more robust selection of high-quality names. Yields also tend to be higher in overseas markets in general. And finally, valuations can be more attractive.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday morning following better-than-expected weekly employment data. The Labor Department said that first-time unemployment benefit claims fell by 228,000 to 963,000 for the week ended August 8, below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 1.1 million. The reading was the first below 1 million since the pandemic took hold in March. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.9%. Crude oil fell 1% to $42 per barrel, while gold rose $9 to $1958 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday morning following better-than-expected weekly employment data. The Labor Department said that first-time unemployment benefit claims fell by 228,000 to 963,000 for the week ended August 8, below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 1.1 million. The reading was the first below 1 million since the pandemic took hold in March. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.9%. Crude oil fell 1% to $42 per barrel, while gold rose $9 to $1958 per ounce.

Stocks finished mixed on Thursday after fluctuating near breakeven for most of the session. First-time unemployment benefit claims once again fell from the prior week, to 1.508 million. However, the pace of the decline slowed and claims exceeded the consensus forecast. Continuing claims, reported with a one-week lag, fell slightly to 20.54 million, but also exceeded the consensus of 19.85 million. The Dow fell 0.15%, the S&P rose 0.06%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.33%. Crude oil rose 2.5% to $39 per barrel, while gold fell $5 to $1731 per ounce.

Stocks finished mixed on Thursday after fluctuating near breakeven for most of the session. First-time unemployment benefit claims once again fell from the prior week, to 1.508 million. However, the pace of the decline slowed and claims exceeded the consensus forecast. Continuing claims, reported with a one-week lag, fell slightly to 20.54 million, but also exceeded the consensus of 19.85 million. The Dow fell 0.15%, the S&P rose 0.06%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.33%. Crude oil rose 2.5% to $39 per barrel, while gold fell $5 to $1731 per ounce.

The product of a merger between Grand Metropolitan and Guinness in 1997, Diageo is the world's leading producer of branded premium spirits. It also produces and markets beer and wine. Brands include Johnnie Walker blended scotch, Smirnoff vodka, Crown Royal Canadian whiskey, Captain Morgan rum, Tanqueray gin, Baileys Irish Cream, and Guinness stout. Diageo also owns 34% of premium champagne and cognac maker Moet Hennessy, a subsidiary of French luxury-goods maker LVMH Moet Hennessy-Louis Vuitton, and a near-55% stake in India's United Spirits.

There's a theme to our weekly review of insider trading activity, and that theme is 'benign.' That's a bit of a surprise, coming on the heels of a trading day on January 31 that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average fall by more than 600 points as investors (and the world at large) got more than just a little spooked by the latest news about the coronavirus. But 'benign' it is from our insider friends, and here are the numbers.

There's a theme to our weekly review of insider trading activity, and that theme is 'benign.' That's a bit of a surprise, coming on the heels of a trading day on January 31 that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average fall by more than 600 points as investors (and the world at large) got more than just a little spooked by the latest news about the coronavirus. But 'benign' it is from our insider friends, and here are the numbers.

Dividends are supposed to lend stability to a portfolio. However, U.S.-based equity income investors have experienced a high degree of volatility in recent years. In 2018, the U.S. Federal Reserve embarked on an aggressive campaign to raise interest rates, causing Treasury yields to swoop and dive, resulting in a wild ride for supposedly stable U.S. high-income equities. Then the central bank reversed course in 2019, before moving to the sidelines (we shall see) in 2020. The endless speculation over the timing of the Fed's next moves has created market-timing headaches for equity income investors. They have endured wide swings in prices for rate-sensitive equity classes such as utilities, REITs and MLPs - even as generally positive industry fundamentals remained largely intact. In our view, investing in international income stocks is one way to increase diversity of holdings while reducing sensitivity to the Fed's head fakes on rate policy. Investing in overseas stocks carries its own set of risks, such as currency exchange and even the potential for geopolitical turmoil. But there are also lots of positives in this asset class for U.S. investors, including a wide selection, robust industry diversification, higher yields and lower valuations. Argus has recently boosted its global coverage, adding the following BUY-rated international dividend stocks.

Dividends are supposed to lend stability to a portfolio. However, U.S.-based equity income investors have experienced a high degree of volatility in recent years. In 2018, the U.S. Federal Reserve embarked on an aggressive campaign to raise interest rates, causing Treasury yields to swoop and dive, resulting in a wild ride for supposedly stable U.S. high-income equities. Then the central bank reversed course in 2019, before moving to the sidelines (we shall see) in 2020. The endless speculation over the timing of the Fed's next moves has created market-timing headaches for equity income investors. They have endured wide swings in prices for rate-sensitive equity classes such as utilities, REITs and MLPs - even as generally positive industry fundamentals remained largely intact. In our view, investing in international income stocks is one way to increase diversity of holdings while reducing sensitivity to the Fed's head fakes on rate policy. Investing in overseas stocks carries its own set of risks, such as currency exchange and even the potential for geopolitical turmoil. But there are also lots of positives in this asset class for U.S. investors, including a wide selection, robust industry diversification, higher yields and lower valuations. Argus has recently boosted its global coverage, adding the following BUY-rated international dividend stocks.

U.S. stocks rose on Thursday morning. Details of the phase one trade deal signed by the U.S. and China yesterday failed to impress many analysts, but the easing of tensions between the world's two largest economies is a positive. Morgan Stanley and Taiwan Semiconductor are both trading higher after reporting earnings. The dollar is mixed compared to major currencies. The greenback is down against the euro, up against the yen, and down against the pound. The Dow rose 0.6%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.6%. Crude oil traded near $58.50 per barrel, while gold fell $5 to $1550 per ounce.

U.S. stocks rose on Thursday morning. Details of the phase one trade deal signed by the U.S. and China yesterday failed to impress many analysts, but the easing of tensions between the world's two largest economies is a positive. Morgan Stanley and Taiwan Semiconductor are both trading higher after reporting earnings. The dollar is mixed compared to major currencies. The greenback is down against the euro, up against the yen, and down against the pound. The Dow rose 0.6%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.6%. Crude oil traded near $58.50 per barrel, while gold fell $5 to $1550 per ounce.