Monday Tee Up: Inflation and GDP There are no summer doldrums on Wall Street this week. Key inflation data is pending as is the latest GDP data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended last week higher by 1.5%, the S&P 500 gained 0.6%, and the Nasdaq was flat. For the year, the Dow is higher by 4%, the S&P is up 15%, and the Nasdaq has popped 18%. On the economic calendar, Tuesday features the Case-Shiller Home Price Index and Consumer Confidence. On Wednesday, New Home Sales come out. On Thursday, GDP and Durable Goods Orders will be reported. But the big day is Friday when PCE, the Fed's favorite inflation indicator, comes out. In April, PCE printed at 2.7% and core PCE was 2.8%. For May, we forecast both PCE and core PCE will dropped down to 2.6%. Friday also beings updates on Personal Income, Personal Spending, and Consumer Sentiment. At least seven Fed officials have public speaking engagements this week. On the earnings calendar, Fedex and Carnival reported on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Micron Technology, General Mills, Paychex, Jefferies, and Levi Strauss. And on Thursday, Nike, Walgreens Boots Alliance, and McCormick step up to the plate. Overall earnings for 1Q came in 8% higher than in the same quarter last year. That's better than was expected before reporting season started. For 2024 in total, we forecast a 9.5% gain in earnings. Second-quarter earnings season kicks off on Friday, July 12, with the big banks. Last week, mortgage rates dipped further below the 7% mark, dropping to 6.87% for the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. Gas prices are still at $3.43 per gallon for the average price of regular gas. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator is forecasting for 2Q and calls for expansion of 3.0%. The Cleveland Fed CPINow indicator is at 3.13% for June. Looking ahead, the next Fed rate decision is at the very end of July, with odds for a cut at 10%. In mid-September, the odds pop to 66%; by November 7, they hit 78%; and by December 18, the odds ring in at 95%. Of note, the Fed's most-recent dot plot implies just one rate cut this year. Despite this, we still believe the Fed will cut twice this year and two more times in 2025.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID) have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be less disrupted by the fallout from global events. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. As well, there are long stretches in the record books when SMID stocks have outperformed large-caps. That said, SMID stocks can be risky. The standard deviation for monthly returns was 5.7% for SMID stocks over a 2003-2021 test period, versus 4.3% for large-caps. Still, despite the risks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

As detailed by Argus' Mark Arbeter, CMT, there was a major bearish intraday reversal on March 8, accompanied by heavy downside volume, especially in the Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), semiconductors, and most of the Technology sector. That was followed by downside follow-through. The QQQs and the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) lost their 21-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) by a minor amount - though we note that the 21-day EMA has been recaptured quickly of late.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, analyzes insider trading and institutional stock ownership. Form 13-Fs, which institutions must file to report their holdings, are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters and have come in for 3Q23. We review 13Fs of major activists to determine core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing is now less about generating a short-term return and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Activists recently made progress with investments into companies such as FedEx and Union Pacific. Based on Vickers data, here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, as well as other high-profile money managers.

Stocks hit an intraday high on Thursday on the Fed's final policy decision of 2023, but gave up some of their gains by market close. In other news, last week's initial jobless claims came in at 202,000, down from 220,000 in the week prior. The Street had been expecting new claims to remain at 220,000. U.S. retail and food services sales rose 0.3% in November according the U.S. Census Bureau's advance reading. Excluding automobiles and parts, sales rose 0.2%; excluding gasoline stations, sales rose 0.6%. On the housing front, mortgage rates fell below 7% for the first time since August. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P 500 gained 0.3% and the Nasdaq was up 0.2%. Crude oil traded near $72 per barrel, while gold rose $53 to $2051 per ounce.

Longer-term measures of market breadth clearly have improved following strong price and breadth thrusts since the October 27 stock market low. If this is truly an extension of the bull market that started in October 2022, we need to see more progress. With 25% of the S&P 500 (SPX) weighting coming from just seven stocks, and the total Technology sector weighting of the SPX near 30% (yes, we have been here before), contributions from other areas of the market "might" be critical. If the can't-miss mega-cap AI stocks stumble or AI simply does not live up to very high expectations, the stock market likely will feel some pain.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Last week was the second consecutive bad week for stocks, the third good week for gold, and the second strong week for Bitcoin. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost 2.5%, the Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) fell 2.6%, the S&P MidCap 400 (MDY) declined 2.8%, and the Russell 2000 (IWM) was off 2.5%. Over the past two weeks, the five indices have fallen between 4.7% and 5.7%. Over the past 13 weeks, the SPX and Nasdaq have fallen in nine weeks, the QQQs eight, the MDY 10, and the IWM 11. Over the past 13 weeks, the SPX and QQQs are down 10%, the Nasdaq is off 12%, the MDY has dropped 14%, and the IWM has given up 17%.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks edged up on Thursday. Pending home sales fell nationwide by an average of 7.1% in August. Elevated mortgage rates, which reached a 23-year high this week, continue to keep most homeowners from relocating, thus reducing available inventory for prospective buyers. Turning to stocks, shares of Peloton Interactive (PTON) popped today on the announcement of a five-year partnership with Lululemon Athletica (LULU). Jabil Inc. (JBL) soared 19% after the contract manufacturer exceeded consensus non-GAAP EPS expectations for fiscal 4Q23 and provided above-consensus EPS guidance for fiscal 1Q24. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 0.8%. Crude oil fell 1% to $91.80 per barrel, while gold traded fell to $1883 per ounce.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID) have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be less disrupted by the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, high European inflation or other geopolitical developments. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. SMID stocks can be risky, but diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 12%-15% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of SMID stocks. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $20 billion to define a SMID stock.

The stock market didn't like the Fed's tone and sold off late Wednesday, with downside follow-through on Thursday. The major indices all appear to be tracing out ABC declines as they all have broken their short-term triangles. We have seen short-term sell signals for all three majors as the 5/13 exponential moving average crossovers have gone bearish. The 21-day rate-of-change also has turned negative for the three indices, another short-term negative.

Stocks rose on Thursday morning, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but pointed to additional rate hikes later this year. The European Central Bank also raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.5% - a 22-year high. Meanwhile, retail sales data was stronger than expected. The Commerce Department said that U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in May, down from 0.4% growth in April, but above the Reuters consensus forecast, which called for a decline of 0.1%. The Dow rose 0.7%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.5%. Crude oil rose 2% to nearly $70 per barrel while gold traded near $1970 per ounce.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID) have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be less disrupted by the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, high European inflation or other geopolitical developments. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. SMID stocks can be risky, but diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 12%-15% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of SMID stocks. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $15 billion to define a SMID stock.

Stocks reversed their losses amid a Wall Street article that implied that some buyers are considering buying First Republic. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank raised its deposit rate from 2.5% to 3% while stating that inflation is projected to remain too high for too long. On the positive side, new economic data surpassed expectations with initial claims dropping from 212,000 to 192,000 claims while housing starts and building permits both rose more than projected to 1.45 million and 1.52 million respectively. The Dow rose 0.6%, the S&P 1.2%, and the Nasdaq 1.8%. Crude oil traded near $67 per barrel, while gold fell $93 to $1921 per ounce.

The stock market has pretty much been dancing to the bond market's tune in 2023. Bond yields decline, and stocks rise as they did in January. Bond yields rise, and stocks fall as they have done in February. Investors may be "getting used to" higher rates, because stocks have held a portion of their January gains even with the return of interest rates to the beginning-of-year-levels.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Early last week, we noted that insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research suggested that corporate insiders 'may coast into the end of 2022 on autopilot, without an expectation for share prices to surge but also without fear that a significant pullback is pending.' By the end of last week, that statement was tested (severely) as stocks surged early in the week and then pulled back significantly at the end of the week. So, has sentiment among insiders now changed? Simply put, it has not.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks rose in volatile trading on Wednesday morning, led by the Energy and Communication Services sectors. Biogen shares jumped 38% after the company reported positive data from an Alzheimer's drug trial, while Apple fell more than 3% on reports that it would drop plans to boost production of its new iPhone due to slowing demand. In the UK, the Bank of England announced that it would buy 65 billion pounds of long-dated government bonds in an effort to stem a massive selloff and maintain financial stability. The Dow rose 0.9%, the S&P 1.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.8%. Crude oil rose nearly 3% to $81 per barrel, while gold rose $25 to $1661 per ounce.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID stocks) have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but still may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be less disrupted by the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. SMID stocks can be risky -- and large-caps outperformed SMID stocks in 11 of the 19 years in our test period. Still, despite the risks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 12%-15% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of SMID stocks. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $20 billion to define a SMID stock.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Monday Tee-Up: Signals from the Housing Market

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID stocks) have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but still may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be less disrupted by the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. That said, SMID stocks can be risky and large-caps outperformed SMID stocks in 11 of the 19 years in our test period. Still, despite the risks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 12%-15% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of SMID stocks. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $20 billion to define a SMID stock.

Stocks rose again on Wednesday morning ahead of the Fed's afternoon policy statement and subsequent commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Investors will be watching closely for more detail about the pace and timing of future interest rate hikes. Stocks also benefited from signs of progress in the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. The Dow rose 1.1%, the S&P 1.6%, and the Nasdaq 2.7%. Crude oil traded near $96 per barrel, while gold fell $21 to $1909 per ounce.

Stocks fell again on Friday morning, as investors continued to weigh the impact of hawkish policy decisions at the Fed and other central banks. The selloff also reflected uncertainty about the fast-spreading Omicron variant. The CDC now estimates that the new variant accounts for 2.9% of coronavirus cases in the U.S., up more than sevenfold over the last week. The Dow fell 1.0%, the S&P fell 0.6%, and the Nasdaq was flat. Crude oil fell nearly 3% to $70.50 per barrel, while gold rose $11 to $1809 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday morning as investors await action by Congress to avoid a government shutdown at midnight. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose to 362,000 for the week ended September 25, up from 351,000 a week earlier and above the consensus forecast of 330,000. The Dow fell 0.6%, the S&P fell 0.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.3%. Crude oil rose to more than $75 per barrel, while gold jumped $40 to $1763 per ounce.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID stocks) soared in 2019. They have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but still may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be poised to rebound more quickly once COVID-19 vaccines are more widely distributed and the domestic service economy recovers. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. That said, SMID stocks can be risky. Still, despite the risks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. Investors used to use a $2 billion market-cap threshold to define a small-cap stock and a $10 billion threshold for a mid-cap. The Russell 2000 index now includes numerous companies with market capitalizations above $15 billion. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $20 billion to define a SMID stock.

Year-to-date sector leadership remains with the rotation favorites of early 2021. With the long bond spiking from 0.9% at year-end 2020 to 1.75% by the end of the first quarter, growth favorites retreated. But investors wanted to remain invested in equities in a reopening economy, and rotational favorites filled the void.

Last week featured a Fed meeting in which nothing changed (yet everything changed), and the stock market suffered its worst five days since January. The pain was distributed unevenly, with the DJIA dropping 3.5%, the S&P 500 down 1.91%, and the Nasdaq off only 0.3%.

Stocks closed mixed on Thursday as investors digested the Fed's policy decision. Interest rates will remain near zero but 13 of the FOMC's 18 members expect at least one rate hike by the end of 2023. The central bank will continue to purchase at least $120 billion a month in agency mortgage-backed securities and U.S. Treasuries. Yields on the U.S. 10-year Treasury rose to 1.59%, but subsequently slipped to 1.5%. In other news, initial jobless claims rose to 412,000 for the week ended June 12. The Dow fell 0.6%, the S&P was down less than 0.1% and the Nasdaq was up 0.9%. Crude oil traded near $71per barrel, while gold fell $7 to $1774 per ounce.

The stock market has been wracked by rising interest rates, escalating inflation fears, and sharp selling among last year's winning stocks. And for all that, the S&P 500 closed on 3/12/21 with a 5.3% quarter-to-date gain. If that holds, the index in 2021 will more than double its average 2.1% first-quarter gain since 1980. 'If it holds' is a big if, given that stocks staged selloffs in the final weeks of both January and February.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID stocks) surged in the past quarter. They also have outperformed large-caps over the past 12 months and may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be poised to rebound more quickly once COVID-19 vaccines are widely distributed and the economy recovers. As well, the prices of SMID stocks are generally lower than the prices of large-caps. While SMID stocks can be risky, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 20%-25% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of SMID stocks. Investors used to use a $2 billion market-cap threshold to define a small-cap stock and a $10 billion threshold for a mid-cap. We note that the Russell 2000 index now includes numerous companies with market capitalizations above $15 billion. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $20 billion to define a SMID stock.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID stocks) surged in the past quarter. They also have outperformed large-caps over the past 12 months and may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be poised to rebound more quickly once COVID-19 vaccines are widely distributed and the economy recovers. As well, the prices of SMID stocks are generally lower than the prices of large-caps. While SMID stocks can be risky, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 20%-25% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of SMID stocks. Investors used to use a $2 billion market-cap threshold to define a small-cap stock and a $10 billion threshold for a mid-cap. We note that the Russell 2000 index now includes numerous companies with market capitalizations above $15 billion. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $20 billion to define a SMID stock.

Stocks fell on Friday morning as a long-awaited fiscal stimulus package remained elusive despite signs that Democrats and Republicans were moving closer to an agreement. Congress is instead likely to first pass another stopgap spending bill that will keep the government running past midnight, while also providing time for additional stimulus negotiations. The package under discussion reportedly includes one-time payments of $600 to most Americans, extended unemployment benefits, help for states in vaccine distribution, and aid for small businesses. The Dow fell 0.6%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil traded near $49 per barrel, while gold rose $1 to $1892 per ounce.

Apple introduced four new iPhones last week. The phones range in price from $699 to $1,099 and employ the new 5G standard promising lightning-fast download speeds. While the devices themselves do not pack a lot of 'wow' factor, the ultra-fast A14 Bionic processor powers applications and enables cutting-edge display and camera performance. The Street is banking on iPhone 12 triggering Apple's biggest upgrade cycle in years, and that creates some disappointment risk if the cycle is merely average. We believe that 5G itself, and consumers' desire to remain in the Apple ecosystem, will drive a reasonably strong upgrade cycle. Apple Inc. is on the Argus BUY list and expected to benefit. The iPhone ecosystem also includes other stocks we rate BUY, listed below.

Apple introduced four new iPhones last week. The phones range in price from $699 to $1,099 and employ the new 5G standard promising lightning-fast download speeds. While the devices themselves do not pack a lot of 'wow' factor, the ultra-fast A14 Bionic processor powers applications and enables cutting-edge display and camera performance. The Street is banking on iPhone 12 triggering Apple's biggest upgrade cycle in years, and that creates some disappointment risk if the cycle is merely average. We believe that 5G itself, and consumers' desire to remain in the Apple ecosystem, will drive a reasonably strong upgrade cycle. Apple Inc. is on the Argus BUY list and expected to benefit. The iPhone ecosystem also includes other stocks we rate BUY, listed below.

Stocks rose on Friday morning, recovering from early losses. The Commerce Department reported that core capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose 1.8% in August, down from 2.5% in July but above the Reuters consensus forecast of 0.5% growth. Costco posted better-than-expected fiscal 4Q results, though the shares fell on concerns about high coronavirus costs. Boeing shares rose 3% on news that the European regulatory ban on the 737 MAX jet could be lifted in November. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.8%. Crude oil fell slightly to $40 per barrel, while gold traded near $1866 per ounce.

Stocks rose on Friday morning, recovering from early losses. The Commerce Department reported that core capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose 1.8% in August, down from 2.5% in July but above the Reuters consensus forecast of 0.5% growth. Costco posted better-than-expected fiscal 4Q results, though the shares fell on concerns about high coronavirus costs. Boeing shares rose 3% on news that the European regulatory ban on the 737 MAX jet could be lifted in November. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.8%. Crude oil fell slightly to $40 per barrel, while gold traded near $1866 per ounce.

Stocks posted mixed results on Friday, but were able to hang on to low-single-digit gains for the week. Blue chips were up slightly, while riskier technology names performed better. Concerns about a new round of coronavirus cases in multiple southwestern and southern states, even as the reopening process accelerated in formerly hard-hit northeastern states, caused the market to swing back and forth all week. Many states that were previously spared high case numbers in April and May are now logging record highs for daily reported cases. Arizona, Florida, Nevada, South Carolina and Texas are among those reporting surges. Outside the United States, Brazil exceeded 1 million reported cases. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened higher but closed down 209 points, or 0.8%. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite was flat and the S&P 500 decreased 0.6%. For the full week, the Dow gained almost 270 points and increased 1.0%. The S&P 500 was up 1.9%, and the Nasdaq gained 3.7%. Year-to-date losses are now 9.4% for the Dow and 4.1% for the S&P 500, while the Nasdaq is up 10.9%. Over the past 52 weeks, only the Dow is negative. The Dow is down 3.2%, the S&P 500 is up 5.0%, and the Nasdaq is up 23.8%.

Stocks posted mixed results on Friday, but were able to hang on to low-single-digit gains for the week. Blue chips were up slightly, while riskier technology names performed better. Concerns about a new round of coronavirus cases in multiple southwestern and southern states, even as the reopening process accelerated in formerly hard-hit northeastern states, caused the market to swing back and forth all week. Many states that were previously spared high case numbers in April and May are now logging record highs for daily reported cases. Arizona, Florida, Nevada, South Carolina and Texas are among those reporting surges. Outside the United States, Brazil exceeded 1 million reported cases. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened higher but closed down 209 points, or 0.8%. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite was flat and the S&P 500 decreased 0.6%. For the full week, the Dow gained almost 270 points and increased 1.0%. The S&P 500 was up 1.9%, and the Nasdaq gained 3.7%. Year-to-date losses are now 9.4% for the Dow and 4.1% for the S&P 500, while the Nasdaq is up 10.9%. Over the past 52 weeks, only the Dow is negative. The Dow is down 3.2%, the S&P 500 is up 5.0%, and the Nasdaq is up 23.8%.

Large-caps have outperformed over the past 12 months, but small- and mid-caps may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, many smaller companies often are more focused on domestic operations and may not be exposed to the global economic uncertainty caused by the coronavirus. For another, prior to COVID-19, the long-term record favored small-caps over large-caps. From 2003-2019, the Russell 2000 Index had climbed 282%, compared to an advance of 233% for the Russell 1000 Index. In 2020, a relatively weak performance by the Russell 2000 Index has brought the measures more in line for the year-to-date. SP despite risks associated with smaller-cap stocks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 15%-20% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of small- and mid-cap stocks.

Large-caps have outperformed over the past 12 months, but small- and mid-caps may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, many smaller companies often are more focused on domestic operations and may not be exposed to the global economic uncertainty caused by the coronavirus. For another, prior to COVID-19, the long-term record favored small-caps over large-caps. From 2003-2019, the Russell 2000 Index had climbed 282%, compared to an advance of 233% for the Russell 1000 Index. In 2020, a relatively weak performance by the Russell 2000 Index has brought the measures more in line for the year-to-date. SP despite risks associated with smaller-cap stocks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 15%-20% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of small- and mid-cap stocks.

We can well imagine that 'wow' has been uttered by more than just a few people of late. 'Wow' about the spread of the coronavirus; about the impact of the virus on share prices and the global economy; and about the change in lifestyle that has taken place in a mere matter of weeks. But for those of us who follow insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research, recent data has led us not to a 'wow,' but rather to a 'wow, wow, wow.'

We can well imagine that 'wow' has been uttered by more than just a few people of late. 'Wow' about the spread of the coronavirus; about the impact of the virus on share prices and the global economy; and about the change in lifestyle that has taken place in a mere matter of weeks. But for those of us who follow insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research, recent data has led us not to a 'wow,' but rather to a 'wow, wow, wow.'

Back on November 20, we talked about the Industrial sector SPDR (XLI) breaking out to all-time highs after building a very large, 22-month base. We proffered that from an absolute basis, we could see some nice gains but were uncertain whether Industrials would provide that all-important relative performance.

Back on November 20, we talked about the Industrial sector SPDR (XLI) breaking out to all-time highs after building a very large, 22-month base. We proffered that from an absolute basis, we could see some nice gains but were uncertain whether Industrials would provide that all-important relative performance.

Washington is as turbulent as ever, buffeted by impeachment proceedings, the trade process, an interim government-spending bill, and the drug-pricing wrangle. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 is quietly grinding higher in small moves with few down days.

Washington is as turbulent as ever, buffeted by impeachment proceedings, the trade process, an interim government-spending bill, and the drug-pricing wrangle. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 is quietly grinding higher in small moves with few down days.

Stocks rose on Friday morning, recovering from early losses. The Commerce Department reported that core capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose 1.8% in August, down from 2.5% in July but above the Reuters consensus forecast of 0.5% growth. Costco posted better-than-expected fiscal 4Q results, though the shares fell on concerns about high coronavirus costs. Boeing shares rose 3% on news that the European regulatory ban on the 737 MAX jet could be lifted in November. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.8%. Crude oil fell slightly to $40 per barrel, while gold traded near $1866 per ounce.

Stocks posted mixed results on Friday, but were able to hang on to low-single-digit gains for the week. Blue chips were up slightly, while riskier technology names performed better. Concerns about a new round of coronavirus cases in multiple southwestern and southern states, even as the reopening process accelerated in formerly hard-hit northeastern states, caused the market to swing back and forth all week. Many states that were previously spared high case numbers in April and May are now logging record highs for daily reported cases. Arizona, Florida, Nevada, South Carolina and Texas are among those reporting surges. Outside the United States, Brazil exceeded 1 million reported cases. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened higher but closed down 209 points, or 0.8%. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite was flat and the S&P 500 decreased 0.6%. For the full week, the Dow gained almost 270 points and increased 1.0%. The S&P 500 was up 1.9%, and the Nasdaq gained 3.7%. Year-to-date losses are now 9.4% for the Dow and 4.1% for the S&P 500, while the Nasdaq is up 10.9%. Over the past 52 weeks, only the Dow is negative. The Dow is down 3.2%, the S&P 500 is up 5.0%, and the Nasdaq is up 23.8%.

Large-caps have outperformed over the past 12 months, but small- and mid-caps may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, many smaller companies often are more focused on domestic operations and may not be exposed to the global economic uncertainty caused by the coronavirus. For another, prior to COVID-19, the long-term record favored small-caps over large-caps. From 2003-2019, the Russell 2000 Index had climbed 282%, compared to an advance of 233% for the Russell 1000 Index. In 2020, a relatively weak performance by the Russell 2000 Index has brought the measures more in line for the year-to-date. SP despite risks associated with smaller-cap stocks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 15%-20% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of small- and mid-cap stocks.

We can well imagine that 'wow' has been uttered by more than just a few people of late. 'Wow' about the spread of the coronavirus; about the impact of the virus on share prices and the global economy; and about the change in lifestyle that has taken place in a mere matter of weeks. But for those of us who follow insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research, recent data has led us not to a 'wow,' but rather to a 'wow, wow, wow.'

Barring a market catastrophe, the bull market should continue through 2019 and at least carry into early 2020; how it then fares is yet to be seen. The current bull market, which began in March 2009, has been uncommonly durable, running for 128 months and counting. In the post-World War II era, we count 12 bull markets; on average, they have lasted 60 months.

Barring a market catastrophe, the bull market should continue through 2019 and at least carry into early 2020; how it then fares is yet to be seen. The current bull market, which began in March 2009, has been uncommonly durable, running for 128 months and counting. In the post-World War II era, we count 12 bull markets; on average, they have lasted 60 months.

Apple introduced four new iPhones last week. The phones range in price from $699 to $1,099 and employ the new 5G standard promising lightning-fast download speeds. While the devices themselves do not pack a lot of 'wow' factor, the ultra-fast A14 Bionic processor powers applications and enables cutting-edge display and camera performance. The Street is banking on iPhone 12 triggering Apple's biggest upgrade cycle in years, and that creates some disappointment risk if the cycle is merely average. We believe that 5G itself, and consumers' desire to remain in the Apple ecosystem, will drive a reasonably strong upgrade cycle. Apple Inc. is on the Argus BUY list and expected to benefit. The iPhone ecosystem also includes other stocks we rate BUY, listed below.