With all things viewed in context, insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research is 'better' this week than in other recent weeks. The sell/buy ratios from Vickers this week are indeed vastly improved over the last few weeks. The NYSE One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio is now 4.04, a big improvement from 11.00 last week and 11.87 the week before that. On the Nasdaq, the one-week reading is now 3.39 and compares very favorably with a 10.53 result recorded three weeks ago, as the Nasdaq had soured a week before the NYSE. So the trend is good, but, contextually, the ratios are still not clearly bullish - just a lot less bearish. Drilling down, the number of insider sell transactions grew higher still this week, with a 20% increase in sales compared to last week. But, in a positive offset, the number of purchase transactions also popped -- and by 161%. End of day, insiders seem less panicky than they did a few weeks ago - and that that seems to align with the mood of investors in general. But let's not forget that, in context, the S&P 500 closed last week at a level that is still 323 points below where it was in mid-July. On a sector basis, selling by insiders last week was greatest in Healthcare, with shares valued at $127 million sold versus roughly $4 million bought, followed by Information Technology, which saw nearly $90 million of shares sold. Buying outpaced selling in the Energy sector. This week, analysts at Vickers highlighted insider transactions of interest at Stryker Corp. (NYSE: SYK) and Block Inc. (NYSE: SQ).

Overall, the stock market had another very good day yesterday. But, once again, it was because of the suddenly loved (for now) little guys. To put this into perspective, the total market cap of the Russell 2000 (IWM) is said to be only as large as one of the multiple $3 trillion market-cap stocks in the "Magnificent 7." But let's not spoil the party. Stocks are posting some historical returns on massive trading volume. Over the past five days, IWM has soared 11.5%. Excluding the comeback from the pandemic, the index has now logged the greatest five-day period since October 2011. Before that, you have to go back to the initial rally after the March 2009 bear-market low to find such a move. The IWM is only nine points (about 4%) from its November 8, 2021, all-time high. It has completed a massive 31-month consolidation and, as they say, the larger the base, the higher in space. Over the past four days, IWM volume exploded as investors piled into the small-cap trade while, we imagine, many long mega-cap and short small-cap trades were unwound. The four-day volume totaled 227.4 million shares or 56.9 mln./day. The 50-day average is 26.5 mln. shares and the 200-day average is 36 mln. shares. This is the largest cluster of volume during an IWM rally since December. Typically, large clusters of huge volume happen during corrections and bear markets and many times represent downside capitulation. Market breadth obviously has been strong, with the four-day NYSE advances-declines hitting +1,004. This is a short-term breadth thrust and is usually associated with the beginning of an advance. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

The minor change in character in the stock market lasted three to five days, depending on how it is measured. After three down days, that was enough for the "king of the hill" and investors swooped in and catapulted Nvidia (NVDA) to a 6.7% pop on June 25. The stock is now just 7% from its recent all-time closing high. While other semiconductor stocks rose as well, their gains were muted -- with most of the heavyweights gaining 2%-3%. ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) was the exception, reclaiming 6.4%. So was that it for the great semiconductor decline in 2024? Bullishly, most of the big stocks held initial support from their 21-day exponential averages. In addition, the semis quickly worked off extreme momentum divergences on a daily basis. But many remain overbought on a weekly basis and have traced out weekly bearish divergences (some quite glaring). From a technical basis, we would prefer (and lean toward) more sideways-to-down price action in the coming weeks before the next leg higher. Seasonally, the summer-to-fall period has been the worst for semiconductors and technology in general. As for the areas of the market that had benefited recently, June 25 was not a pretty day. The S&P MidCap 400 declined 1%, while the S&P SmallCap 600 fell 0.9%. Looking at sectors, Real Estate (XLRE), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) all dropped at least 1%, with Financials (XLF) and Industrials (XLI) giving back 0.8%. NYSE breadth was -1,000, while advancing issues/total issues and up volume/total volume was fairly weak at only 33%. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

Insiders remain on the sidelines. Meanwhile, the breadth of the overall market is of concern to some, with the DJIA lower over the past month, the S&P higher, and the Nasdaq soaring. That's not ideal balance -- though there are some recent signs of the start of rebalancing among the major indices. As well, some big-name tech companies are making headlines as C-suite execs sell stock (see Nvidia). That's well worth keeping an eye on -- but it is hard to pound the drum too hard right now. With the stock up about 156% in the YTD, some profits were likely to be taken. Again, though, this needs to be watched carefully, not just for NVDA but for all the AI stocks that have pulled the stock market to all-time highs. If they start to wobble, will investors truly reallocate or head for the hills? On a sector basis, selling by insiders last week was greatest in Information Technology, with shares valued at $430 million sold, followed by Healthcare ($198 million sold) and Financials ($157 million sold). Buying outpaced selling in Energy, with $52 million of shares bought versus $1.5 million sold, as well as in Consumer Staples. This week, analysts at Vickers highlighted insider transactions of interest at Applied Materials Inc. (NGS: AMAT) and Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited (NYSE: TEVA).

While the stock market made a decent recovery on Monday after getting trounced since April 11, we certainly do not have enough evidence that the pullback is over. There has been some minor technical damage from an intermediate-term perspective, with the major indices undercutting their 50-day moving averages and the 21-day exponential average crossing below the 50-day simple late last week. This is the first moving-average crossover since August 2023. So after any oversold rally runs its course, we think there is an even chance that the indices have another leg lower that will undercut Friday's low.

The Federal Open Market Committee meets today and will release their interest-rate decision on Wednesday. That will be followed by Fed Chairman Powell's press conference, always a "can't miss" event for everyone involved in the financial markets. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the highest probability (subject to massive change) for the first 25-basis-point fed funds cut is at the June 12 meeting -- but that is not a slam-dunk event. By the last meeting of 2024 on December 18, the most-likely scenario for the fed funds rate currently is sitting at three 25-basis-point cuts.

U.S. stocks were higher on Tuesday morning following the release of hotter-than-expected inflation data In February, headline CPI-U rose 0.4%, matching expectations and up from 0.3% last month. This brings the annual inflation rate to 3.2%, up from 3.1% last month. Core CPI rose 0.4%, matching the prior month but ahead of expectations for the second straight month, bringing annual core-CPI to 3.8%, down from 3.9% last month. Over 60% of the monthly increase for headline CPI was from the shelter and energy components. Investors still expect the first rate cut will be in June. The Dow rose 0.7%, the S&P 500 was up 1.0%, and the Nasdaq gained 1.4%. Crude oil traded above $78 per barrel, while gold fell $22 to $2167 per ounce.

While the Nasdaq continues to flirt with (finally) printing an all-time high (ATH), the last of which was in November 2021 at 16,057.44, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been in ATH territory since December 2023. And yes, the ETF has cycled into overbought (OB) territory on a daily and weekly basis and is close to cycling into OB territory on a monthly basis.

Stock indices dipped in October 2023, with the S&P 500 falling a sharp 10% off summer highs. Looking at 13F filings of big institutional portfolios, we see that the big guns were busy last quarter taking advantage of that dip. Citadel Advisors went on a buying spree, adding to its $100 billion portfolio across a range of sectors. As did D.E. Shaw, adding to its $67 billion portfolio. Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, analyzes insider trading and institutional stock ownership. Form 13-Fs, which institutions must file to report their holdings, are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters and have come in for 4Q24. We review 13Fs of major activists to determine core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing is now less about generating a short-term return and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Based on data from Vickers, here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, as well as other high-profile money managers.

Stocks rose again on Thursday, with more evidence of rotation away from mega-cap tech. That's of particular interest knowing that Nvidia reports after the close next Wednesday. There are extremely high expectations for another blowout quarter from the company. But after a rise of more than 80% since late October (16 weeks), even a textbook "impressive" beat could lead to a "sell the news" reaction. Or the shares might surge higher and all will be good. The stocks of great companies sometimes go down, no matter the news.

Last week, we discussed some obscure sentiment indicators, all of which suggested stocks are overheating. Things got even hotter this week. We found another type of index option indicator that has done well at forecasting trouble for the stock market, yet we rarely hear anyone talk about it. The following data comes from www.sentimentrader.com.

The Santa Claus rally blew up, which many believe does not portend well for stocks in January and 2024. The next great “tell” (LOL) will be the first five trading days of January -- and the first two stunk. And then, of course, we have the entire month of January to guide us for the entire year. Yet maybe this is all about delayed capital-gains selling after a very good 2023, especially at the end of the year.

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning following new employment and service sector data. In its monthly JOLTS survey, the Labor Department said that job openings fell to 8.73 million on the last day of October, down from 9.35 million a month earlier and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 9.3 million. Services data was stronger than expected. The Institute for Supply Management said that its non-manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7 in November from 51.8 in October and also topped the consensus forecast of 52.0. CVS shares rose 4% after the company issued strong 2024 sales guidance and raised its dividend by 10%. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.6%. Crude oil rose to $73.50 per barrel, while gold fell $12 to trade near $2031 per ounce.

The 10-year Treasury yield finished at another recovery high of 4.99% on Thursday, as did the five-year yield, which closed at 4.96%. The two-year yield was flat at 5.16%, having hit a new recovery high Wednesday. The yield curve (two/10 spread) is at -17 basis points (bps) after hitting a low of -108 bps on July 3 and March 8 of this year. The move to reinversion has been dramatic since September 20, when the curve was -77 bps.

Market participants often exhibit something called "recency bias," which is the tendency to overstate the importance of recent experiences or the latest information when contemplating future events. This "memory bias" leads one to believe that recent events give an indication about how future events will unfold. There has been a lot of talk about market seasonals lately, with many worried about August, September, and the first few weeks of October. And yes, historically those periods have featured the worst time of year for the stock market -- using many different timeframes.

Stocks were mixed on Wednesday morning as investors weighed earnings from Target and new housing market data. Target shares rose more than 3% after the retailer reported strong second-quarter earnings; however, sales fell and management lowered its full-year earnings guidance, citing the impact of inflation on consumer spending. Housing market data was positive. The Commerce Department said that overall housing starts rose 3.9% in July to an annualized 1.452 million units, above the Reuters consensus forecast of 1.448 million. Starts for single-family homes rose at an even stronger 6.7% rate. The Dow rose 0.3%, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.2%. Crude oil traded near $81 per barrel, while gold fell slightly to $1934 per ounce.

The Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) fell slightly under their 50-day averages late last week, which we don't consider a break of this key short-term support. The last time the indices were below their 50-day was in March. They have dipped 5% from closing highs on July 18 and also are slightly below trendline support off March lows.

We recently read two statements that pretty much say it all. The first was this. 'Positive earnings surprises of this magnitude are rarely seen when you enter a recession.' That compared to this. 'Forecasted probability of recession at levels only seen during recessions.' Yes, these are confusing times.

In recent commentary, we talked about one of the things missing from this potential new bull market -- namely, a lockout rally. Persistent strength is a common theme after 'the' low is in. In 1982, the 13-week rate-of-change (ROC) after the bottom was 37% and the S&P 500 (SPX) rose in 10 of those 13 weeks. Off the secondary low in early 1991, the 14W ROC was 22% with 10 of 14 weeks positive. In 1998, the 13W gain was 30% and the '500' rose in 10 of 13 weeks. After the technology meltdown, the 13W bounce off the 2003 low was 20%, with 10 of 13 weeks on the upside. After the financial crises, we witnessed a 38% rally in 2009, with the index rising in 11 of 13 weeks. Following the 2011 secondary low, the 16W rate-of-change was 22%, with advances in 13 of 16 weeks.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of The Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional stock ownership trends. Form 13-Fs, which institutions must file to report their holdings, are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and have now come in for 4Q22. We like to review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings, among others, in order to determine their core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Activists have made progress in the past quarter with high-profile investments into blue-chip companies such as Walt Disney and Salesforce. Based on data from Vickers, here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, as well as other high-profile money managers such as Warren Buffet of Berkshire Hathaway and Ken Griffin of Citadel Advisors LLC.

Stocks slumped throughout 2022, as the S&P 500 entered a bear market in June and closed 19% lower for the year. Value stocks generally outperformed during the year, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 9% while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 33%. The leading sectors were value-oriented, such as Energy, Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Financial Services. The average stock in the Argus Universe of Coverage declined 13% during the year, and the median stock declined 15%. The average BUY-rated stock dropped 11%, while the average HOLD-rated stock fell 17%. Will investors continue to favor value in 2023? Will high inflation drive continued outperformance in Energy?

Stocks fell on Monday morning, driven in part by concerns about the economic impact of anti-lockdown protests in China. Apple shares fell nearly 2% after Bloomberg reported that worker unrest at the Foxconn plant in Zhengzhou that manufactures iPhones could lead to a six-million unit shortfall in iPhone Pro production this year. The Dow fell 0.5%, the S&P 0.8%, and the Nasdaq 0.7%. Crude oil traded near $76 per barrel, while gold fell $7 to $1748 per ounce.

October, as it has been many times in the past, was a wild month -- and at least a short-term bear killer. The month started out great and then the major indices fell off a small cliff and declined to new bear-market lows. But stocks had an amazing bullish reversal on October 13 and have been grinding nicely higher ever since. While it's a start, we are a long way from putting the bear fully into hibernation, despite the calendar's turn toward colder weather.

Friday's mini stock crash came on the heels of an eight-minute speech by Fed Chairman Powell. Did we really think the Federal Reserve was going to be dovish after improvement in only a few very minor inflation data points? The trading machines (algos) took over Friday while many were at the beach, leaving the overall market a bit illiquid.

The venerable New York Stock Exchange Bullish Percent Index is a market indicator that tracks the percentage of NYSE stocks that are on buy signals based on point-and-figure technical analysis. It plots rising prices in columns of Xs and falling prices in columns of Os. The indicator rallied to "Bull Confirmed" status earlier this month, according to StockCharts.com, which suggests demand is in control of the U.S. market. We believe that event is worth watching closely.

Monday Tee-Up: Housing, Consumers, Manufacturing

onday Tee-Up: Housing, Consumers, Manufacturing

There's been a lot of talk, mostly among technicians, about the belief that when the S&P 500 retraces 50% of its correction/bear market, the closing lows are in and investors can respond accordingly. Well, even if it was that simple, it doesn't always work. During major meltdowns, you might miss a massive rally if you waited for the "500" to see that kind or retracement. We also question any focus on a single percentage rather than a range. What if the "500" retraces 49%? Is that no good?

Is price volatility as well as expected volatility breaking down? It depends how you measure it and what period you are examining. The 40-day rate-of-change (ROC) for the S&P 500 is 1.6%, while the 22-day ROC is 8%. The 140-day ROC is -17%, while the 330-day ROC is 0%. Oh, the games we can play with numbers!

After getting up on one knee, the stock market was rocked Tuesday and is on its back once again. At least none of the indices made new lows. The S&P 500 gave back 2%, the Nasdaq surrendered 3%, and the QQQs plunged 3.1%. As a minor positive, breadth was not terrible -- with NYSE advancers/decliners at -1,476 and NYSE volume/total volume and NYSE advancers/total issues at 73%.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional ownership trends. Form 13-Fs are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and have now come in from 1Q22. We like to review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings, among others. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, according to the data from Vickers.

Stocks continued their turnaround on Thursday, with the major indices rising 2%-3%. Yes, we have seen recent sharp rallies before, all of which were in the confines of the correction/bear market -- and all led to new price lows. But as we have said of late, many breadth and sentiment indicators are extremely washed out and we have seen some short-term bullish breadth divergences. So maybe this time is different.

While stocks have struggled in 2022, corporate insiders have reacted with increasing optimism -- expressing confidence that historically has come in advance of notable rallies.

Thursday was yet another brutal day for stocks, especially after Wednesday's strong gains. Risk On. Risk Off. It never seems to end! The S&P 500 is back near its closing lows after cratering 3.6%, its worst day since April 29. NYSE breadth was horrible at -2,725. NYSE declining volume/total volume and declining issues/total issues both registered 90% days, a pretty good washout, at least for a day.

This edition features our oil market update, Sea's challenges in shoring up profitability, the rhythm of media entertainment's pulse, and BASF, Alibaba, and BlackRock.

Stocks stumbled early in 2022. Growth stocks were the weakest, as Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary underperformed. Leading sectors tended to be value-oriented, including Energy, Financial, and Utilities. The average stock in the Argus universe declined 2% in 1Q22, and the median stock declined 4%. The average BUY-rated stock dropped 3.2%, while the average HOLD-rated stock gained 1.4%. Will investors continue to favor value? Will high inflation drive continued outperformance in Energy and Materials? Given interest rates that remain historically low, we expect growth stocks to outperform over time and believe that 2022 simply may be the one-in-five years that value leads. Investors seeking value are encouraged to focus on dividends and yields in the 3%-4% range. Our current Over-weights sectors are Energy, Financial, Healthcare, Industrials, and Materials.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Stocks fell on Thursday morning after giving up early gains as investors continued to watch developments in Ukraine. Service sector data was weaker than expected. The Institute for Supply Management said that its U.S. services index fell to 56.5 in February, down from 59.9 in January. The above-50 reading still indicated expansion, but was below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 61.1. The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 1.1%. Crude oil traded near $110 per barrel, while gold rose $7 to $1929 per ounce.

This edition features Harmonic Drive, our oil markets outlook, Western Union, and Masco, Compass Minerals, and Zimmer Biomet

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional ownership trends. Form 13-Fs are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and have now come in from 2Q21. We like to review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings, among others. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, according to Vickers.

Stocks gave up early gains on Monday morning as investors awaited reports from major retailers later this week along with October retail sales data. China posted stronger-than-expected industrial output and retail sales data for October. The Dow was flat, the S&P fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.4%. Crude oil fell 1% to $80 per barrel, while gold traded near $1866 per ounce.

Back on August 25, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) near $68/barrel, we said it looked like crude had completed a false breakdown, which made it very likely that the correction was over. WTI had hit one of our targets based on a three-wave ABC decline which targeted $62, and that was basically the bottom. Since then, WTI rallied up to the $70 region, paused for about a week, and looks to be breaking out.